September 5th - This week's series of weaker-than-expected economic data has reinforced market bets on the Federal Reserve's dovish stance. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has pulled back from the 5% threshold, while driving short-term bond yields further lower. In recent days, the U.S. dollar has remained resilient against most currencies, though it has declined approximately 8% year-to-date.

Currently, markets are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September 16-17 meeting. Against this backdrop, markets will look to Friday's non-farm payroll data to gauge how the central bank will formulate monetary policy in the coming months.

Today, Friday, spot gold encountered profit-taking at historical highs, ending a seven-day winning streak. The metal pulled back intraday to $2,510, before recovering some losses and currently consolidating around $2,550.

From the hourly chart perspective, gold's two most critical levels are yesterday's U.S. session high at $2,558 and the evening pullback low at $2,535.

During today's Asian session, gold will likely maintain consolidation within this range.

The key will be tonight's non-farm payroll direction, with current market expectations at 75,000 jobs.

Last month's non-farm data surprised to the downside - expectations were 110,000, but the actual figure came in at only 71,000, causing a significant dollar retreat and strength in non-dollar currencies.

However, this time is different. With expectations already at just 75,000 - already quite low - tonight's data will likely come in above 75,000.

As long as gold doesn't break above yesterday's high of $2,558 before the non-farm data release, the probability of a gold pullback tonight is very high.

Alternatively, if gold breaks below yesterday's low of $2,535, there's a strong probability that gold could subsequently breach the $2,500 major level.

This is something traders must guard against carefully.

Additionally, there's another scenario where gold breaks above the $2,558 high before the non-farm release.

If this occurs, traders would likely need to wait for the actual data release before entering positions.

Theoretically, breaking overnight highs suggests the possibility of further upward movement.

Therefore, once overnight highs are breached, both bulls and bears need to operate with caution.