GLMS Securities has released a research report indicating strong growth in the heavy-duty truck market. For the period from January to May 2026, cumulative sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks reached 96,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. Notably, the cumulative end-user sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks hit 101,000 units, surging 66.6% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 30.5%, pointing to a promising market outlook.
The firm's analysis suggests that domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks in 2026 is experiencing a steady recovery, underpinned by replacement demand for National IV and V standard vehicles. Exports to non-Russian regions continue to exhibit high growth, while the penetration of new energy models is accelerating. The report expresses optimism for leading companies possessing comprehensive advantages in overseas expansion, new energy, and integrated supply chains.
Against the backdrop of power shortages in North America, the rapid growth of AI computing power is fueling increased demand for data center construction and cooling solutions. GLMS Securities outlines its key perspectives as follows:
Review of Heavy-Duty Trucks from Jan-May 2026: Policy-Driven Domestic Recovery and Strong Export Growth
In terms of total volume, wholesale sales of heavy-duty trucks from January to May 2026 amounted to 544,000 units, representing a 23.3% year-on-year increase. Structurally, domestic sales accounted for 332,000 units, up 16.2% year-on-year. Exports showed robust growth, with 177,000 units shipped overseas, marking a 40.4% increase.
The competitive landscape within the heavy-duty truck industry remained stable during this period, with leading firms maintaining dominance. Sinotruk's market share held steady between 25.8% and 31.5%, securing the top position. Industry concentration remained stable, with the combined market share of the top five companies (CR5) hovering around 90.0%.
Outlook for the Second Half of 2026: Accelerated New Energy Expansion and Shifting Export Dynamics
The heavy-duty truck industry has concluded a three-year downturn and is now in a new upward cycle. The detailed implementation of vehicle replacement policies is expected to sustain the fundamental domestic demand through scrappage and replacement needs.
On the export front, while shipments to Russia have cooled, demand from non-Russian regions remains vigorous, supporting expectations for steady overall industry growth. Structurally, demand for construction vehicles faces pressure, while demand for logistics vehicles is anticipated to grow.
The share of diesel heavy-duty trucks is on a significant downward trend. Natural gas models are expected to maintain stable growth, and new energy heavy-duty trucks are projected to perform exceptionally well, likely driving the majority of sales growth. The report forecasts wholesale heavy-duty truck sales of approximately 1.2 million units for 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 4.9%. Exports are projected to reach around 409,000 units, growing approximately 20.0% year-on-year.
Robust Demand in AIDC Power Supply Sector and Valuation Reassessment Amid North American Power Shortages
On the demand side, the iteration of AI models continues to accelerate. As of January 2026, the United States had commissioned and planned a total of 5,427 data centers. This surge in data center demand is driving a significant increase in U.S. power load.
On the supply side, three major bottlenecks are becoming increasingly apparent, substantially weakening the flexibility of the power system's supply. The average age of U.S. power infrastructure is high at 35-40 years, ranking second globally for obsolescence. The proportion of outages caused by power issues has risen from 37% in 2020 to 45% in 2025.
The power supply gap for data centers in North America is continuously widening. Four power generation technologies—gas turbines, gas engines, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), and diesel engines—leverage their respective technical characteristics to form a comprehensive power supply product matrix, fully meeting AIDC's electricity needs across its lifecycle.
The firm posits that the gas turbine sector is currently the leading pathway among the four, characterized by the "most optimal industrial structure, deepest technological moat, and hardest supply constraints." It also recommends paying attention to opportunities in SOFC, diesel generators, and the complete machines and component supply chains for gas engines.
The report concludes with risk warnings, including potential reductions in commercial vehicle policy subsidies, global commercial vehicle demand falling short of expectations, the impact of overseas policies on export sales and profits, and greater-than-anticipated fluctuations in raw material prices.