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The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, representing a crucial phase in the relay race towards basically achieving socialist modernization, entering a "critical period for consolidating the foundation and exerting full force," making economic work of paramount importance. To provide a comprehensive overview of market institutions' forward-looking thoughts on the 2026 economic landscape, policy direction, and investment layout, reporters have specifically invited chief strategists from ten securities firms to share their insights and outlooks on market trends, sector allocation ideas, and major thematic investment opportunities for 2026. It is hoped that through the professional perspectives of these ten chief strategists, investors can gain clarity on the脉络 and seize opportunities, jointly contributing to the healthy development of the capital market and national modernization.
Qiu Xiang from CITIC Securities believes that the profit growth rate of A-share companies in 2026 will show a pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half. He analyzes that the Sino-US dynamic will determine the market's rhythm, potentially dividing the行情 into three stages based on the signing of a US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections: The first stage, from now until the trade agreement is finalized, is expected to see a slowdown in the market's upward trajectory. The second stage, from the agreement's implementation until the conclusion of the US midterm elections, could see A-shares experience sustained gains within a stable external environment. The third stage, after the US midterm elections, might see a sharp increase in uncertainty from external disturbances, requiring investors to shift their focus back to domestic factors. From the perspective of thematic investment opportunities and sector allocation, Qiu Xiang identifies four key线索 worthy of attention: first, the manufacturing sector's争夺 for global pricing power, involving industrial upgrades in resources and traditional manufacturing, transforming market share advantages into sustained increases in pricing power and profit margins; key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy. Second, the出海 and globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly raises the ceiling for market capitalization and profit growth potential; key sectors include machinery, innovative drugs, power equipment, and defense. Third, the continuation of the technology行情, with AI further expanding its commercial applications,延续 the tech trend and amplifying the relative competitive advantages of Chinese companies; related key sectors include semiconductors, computing power, end-device hardware, and AI applications. Fourth,关注 potential超预期 recovery opportunities in domestic demand; although sectors with high domestic demand exposure generally have modest景气度, they also harbor significant potential for recovery and valuation elasticity.
Li Qiusuo, Chief Domestic Strategist at the Research Department of CICC, stated that for 2026, the共振 of two major factors - the restructuring of the international order and China's industrial innovation - will support the performance of A-shares. In terms of rhythm, the market may exhibit a pattern of rising first and stabilizing later; against a backdrop of活跃 capital and rising valuations, attention should be paid to increased volatility and its alignment with fundamental rhythms. Li Qiusuo believes that many growth sectors will maintain their景气度, and market风格 is expected to趋向均衡. He suggests关注 three main lines: 1.景气 Growth: The AI field is expected to gradually enter a phase of application realization; opportunities remain in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, potentially leaning more towards domestic alternatives; on the application side, focus on robotics, consumer electronics, smart driving, and software applications. 2.外需突围: Combining the出海 trend and exposure to the US market, focus on home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial passenger vehicles, power grid equipment, gaming, as well as globally priced resource commodities like non-ferrous metals. 3.周期反转:关注 sectors where supply-demand issues are nearing an inflection point for improvement or those supported by policies, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy. Li Qiusuo expressed anticipation for further capital market policies that promote "long-term" and "steady progress" in the market. Against the backdrop of international monetary system restructuring and global capital reallocation, efforts can be further made to promote the opening up of the capital market, for example, by expanding the range of investments available to foreign capital and encouraging the international development of Chinese securities firms. While supporting financing for technology innovation enterprises and enhancing market inclusiveness, the mechanism for medium- to long-term capital entering the market should continue to be optimized, thereby better meeting the demand for patient capital from tech innovation enterprises while adding stability and resilience to an active market.
Liu Chenming, Chief Strategist at GF Securities, stated that in 2026, against the macro backdrop of debt issues becoming a global challenge, debt resolution primarily involves three methods: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven deleveraging), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven deleveraging), and fiscal tightening (fiscal deleveraging). Under these paths, both AI and gold are expected to ultimately benefit, forming the dual主线 logic for asset performance. In 2026, the A-share market is expected to延续 its "slow bull"格局: On one hand, the structure of corporate profits has undergone profound changes; despite continued weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, aggregate financing, and the PPI, the ROE of A-share non-financial enterprises has stabilized for several consecutive quarters. Notably, the profit share of eight advanced manufacturing industries has risen to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of出海 enterprises has increased to 20%, with overseas market毛利率 being 5 percentage points higher than domestically. These two forces are expected to drive a recovery in the overall A-share ROE after stabilization. On the other hand, current valuation increases have been relatively restrained, with limited透支; if profits recover, there is still room for valuation expansion. In terms of capital, the "migration" of deposits from insurance companies and medium-to-high net-worth individuals will bring incremental funds. Regarding investment direction, Liu Chenming建议重点关注 industries with constrained supply and clear景气 trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and faces short-term supply constraints, as well as sectors like energy storage and metals that have undergone capacity清出. Tactically, he建议 utilizing market adjustments to布局 the "Spring躁动," prioritizing the aforementioned high-景气 sectors.
Fu Jingtao, Chief A-Share Strategist at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, stated that 2025 is a typical "structural bull" market, while the second half of 2026 is expected to usher in a "comprehensive bull" market. Fu Jingtao proposed that A-share bull markets follow a "two-stage" pattern: the structural bull of 2013 was followed by the comprehensive bull of 2015; the structural bull of 2016-2017 was followed by the comprehensive bull of 2020-2021. During the structural bull phase, institutional holdings and valuations of core sectors simultaneously reach initial highs, coupled with the accumulation of institutional赚钱效应 completing the transition from quantitative to qualitative change. Entering the comprehensive bull phase, core industry trends further升级, the scope of fundamental improvement continues to expand, forming a positive feedback loop with incremental capital, ultimately leading to a significant increase in the number of sectors where valuations rise to historical highs. Fu Jingtao believes that the second half of 2026 may迎来 the "comprehensive bull." The fundamental cyclical improvement, the演绎 of technological industry trends into a new stage, and the positive循环 of incremental capital inflows constitute the basic foundation for a comprehensive bull. A-shares will embrace a global "competitive mindset," with China's external circulation transitioning from "following" to "leading," achieving breakthroughs that open up space for China's development and transformation. He stated that the leading主线 of the 2026 bull market will focus on three major directions: the AI industry trend extending from computing power to applications, breakthroughs in the robotics industry, and the revaluation of China's advanced manufacturing in areas like energy storage and photovoltaics. Pro-cyclical and value sectors are likely to have相对优势 during the market consolidation phase in the first half of 2026, with超额收益 in cyclical areas值得重点关注 in basic chemicals and industrial metals.
Bao Chengchao, Deputy General Manager of the Research Institute and Chief Strategist at Guolian Minsheng Securities, believes that with traditional growth drivers and emerging industries发力 simultaneously, market profits will continue to recover in 2026, liquidity will remain宽松, and the core driving force of the market may shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven. Bao Chengchao stated that the implementation of policies like "anti-involution" will improve the competitive landscape of traditional industries and推动 the recovery of domestic inflation levels; the发力 of fiscal policy will create new demand in the domestic market. Meanwhile,共振 development in domestic and overseas technology industries, coupled with accelerated capital inflows into emerging industry sectors, will result in old and new growth drivers协同发力,共同驱动 profit growth in the 2026 market. In terms of industry structure, the technology sector, driven by profit growth rates, will still generate absolute returns, but the gap with消费,周期, and制造 industries will gradually narrow. Against the backdrop of expanding AI capital expenditures, the technology sector will maintain relatively high profit growth rates in 2026, but the current valuation disparity between the tech sector and the overall market is already significant, making further valuation expansion difficult. Against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations, the profit growth rates of traditional消费,周期, and制造 industries are expected to gradually recover, with some sectors facing tight supply-demand balances having significant profit elasticity. Regarding thematic opportunities, with increasing market and policy attention on "new quality productive forces," besides AI, domestic policies in 2026 are bound to辐射 more emerging industries, also bringing more investment opportunities to the market.
Zhang Qiyao, Chief Strategist at Industrial Securities, stated that looking ahead to 2026, fundamental recovery is expected to support further market upside. He analyzed that by dissecting the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it can be seen that revenue has stabilized and begun to recover, but毛利率 is still declining, indicating that price remains the main drag on profits. However, since the second half of 2025, driven by policies like "anti-involution," prices in areas such as resource products have already shown signs of回升, leading to an improvement in毛利率. Zhang Qiyao stated that in 2026, the recovery in nominal economic growth and the回升 in prices will become the most definite trends in the market. Referring to the latest IMF forecasts, China's nominal GDP growth rate in US dollar terms is expected to reach 6.45% in 2026, a significant increase from 2025, and listed company profits will also延续 their improvement trend. At the same time, with the持续 of a global宽松 liquidity environment, A-shares are highly likely to延续 their upward trend in 2026. At the sector allocation level, the market in 2025 was in a stage of structural recovery, with significant divergence in景气度 across sectors, and capital focused on the景气主线, "淘汰ing" weaker sectors. Entering 2026, as more sectors enter the channel of profit recovery, the market allocation logic may switch – from筛选优胜 sectors through a "竞速" mode within each板块. He建议重点关注 four core线索: the AI industry trend, the "price increase chain," the "出海 chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand.
Wu Kaida, Chief Strategist and Dean of the Policy Research Institute at Tianfeng Securities, stated that the positive performance of the A-share market in 2025, continuously攻坚, is inseparable from the enhancement of China's economic strength, technological prowess, and comprehensive national power. The 15th Five-Year Plan will夯实基础 and全面发力,续写 new chapters in the two miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability in 2026, accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse, and the capital market is also expected to experience a "攻坚 bull" market. Regarding sector allocation, Wu Kaida provided three suggestions: First, guidance from Q3 2025 reports and industry data indicate that景气度 is strongly correlated with exports; focus on sectors with a high proportion of overseas business, including electronics, home appliances, automobiles, and power equipment. Second, as the economic cycle warms up and inflation, being a lagging indicator, rises, cyclical stocks tend to gain favor from incremental capital in the middle to late stages of a bull market. Third,关注 industries with potential for bottom reversal, such as food & beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which offer higher赔率. Regarding thematic investment opportunities, he believes the focus should be on breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies and directions of industrial transformation, such as AIDC, embodied AI, brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum computing. In terms of policy suggestions, Wu Kaida believes that to健全 the coordinated functions of investment and financing in the capital market, efforts can be made from aspects such as enhancing flexibility and confidentiality, diversifying listing standards, optimizing investor structure, building a科技金融 ecosystem, and deepening Shanghai-Hong Kong integration and international coordination.
Mu Yiling, Chief Strategist at Guojin Securities, predicts that the ROE of A-share non-financial and real estate industries will rise from the current 7.2% to 7.9% in 2026, with a profit rhythm of being lower first and higher later, allowing the market to脱离 the "low return"区间. He建议布局 along four主线 – industrial resources, equipment exports,消费回补, and non-bank financials – and to重点 track the realization of demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction. He stated that regarding overseas markets, Europe and the US, driven by AI capital expenditures, have already exhibited characteristics of "investment being stronger than consumption," divergence in profitability between large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which in turn provide a basis for the continuation of the rate-cutting cycle. Simultaneously, US fiscal宽松 is almost certain after the introduction of the "Great Beautiful Act," and fiscal expansion is expected to ignite a global restocking cycle for commodities. Emerging markets,凭借 the dual advantages of "demographic dividend + critical minerals," are attracting FDI回流 during the rate-cutting cycle, accelerating industrialization and urbanization. China's export chains in power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles will directly benefit, with intermediate and capital goods orders having the greatest elasticity. On the domestic消费 end, the drag of housing prices on household spending has钝化, the trade settlement rate has回升, and visa-free entry has increased the number of foreign tourists, improving the net profit margins in industries such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food & beverage, yet their relative valuations remain below the 2022 lows. On the capital side, household savings are migrating to "fixed income+," while pension and insurance funds continue to increase their allocation to equities; policies have下调 insurance risk factors and放宽券商 leverage, and the non-bank sector will共振 with the rising ROE.
Chen Guo, Chief Strategist at East Money Securities, stated that although there may be fluctuations in the 2026 market, the bull market remains, and the overall strategy can be summarized as "riding the waves to chase the bull." Potential超预期 factors include the profit recovery of Chinese enterprises, progress in the AI industry, and the possibility of pragmatic cooperation between China and the US. Chen Guo stated that in 2025, facing challenges such as the downturn in old domestic demand sectors like real estate and external tariffs, the Chinese stock market still managed to stage a "confidence revaluation bull." This was得益于 "DeepSeek events" in multiple fields, allowing the market to重新认识 the vitality of China's new economy and its global competitiveness in AI. He stated that entering 2026, for allocation, it is建议 to grasp two aspects with relatively high certainty currently: first, the AI growth sector, and second, the cyclical sector benefiting from the回暖 in commodity prices. If the external environment changes, opportunities in domestic demand sectors may rise. Specifically, focus on three线索: first, the AI泛科技 chain (e.g., semiconductors, overseas computing power, non-ferrous metals, power grid equipment, end-side AI, etc.); second, cyclical industries where supply and demand are expected to reverse (e.g., offshore wind, energy storage, lithium battery equipment, photovoltaics, chemicals, and oil/coal sectors, etc.); third, directions with出海 advantages (e.g., engineering machinery, innovative drugs). He提醒 that on the risk side, market fluctuations may stem from the博弈 between US reflation and the progress of AI commercialization, requiring investors to respond flexibly. For strategic布局, it is建议 that investors seize opportunities for配置 during market dips; if the external environment deteriorates (e.g., setbacks in the AI development narrative), then they can shift to主线 related to intensified domestic demand policies.
Meng Lei, China Equity Strategist at UBS Securities,展望 that in 2026, the increase in nominal GDP growth and the narrowing of the PPI decline will推动 corporate revenue growth; coupled with the profit margin recovery driven by the implementation of supportive policies and the deepening of the "anti-involution" process, the profit growth rate for all A-share companies is expected to further climb to 8%. Meng Lei stated that the current equity risk premium of the A-share market is still higher than its historical average, while that of other emerging market equities is significantly below their long-term averages. From a medium-term perspective, incremental macro policies, accelerating A-share profit growth combined with declining risk-free rates, the持续 "migration" of household deposits to the stock market, the持续 net inflow of long-term funds into equities, and the持续推进 of市值 management reforms will助力 further upside in A-share market valuations. Looking ahead to 2026, four major investment themes are值得重点关注: first, the theme of technological self-reliance and strengthening; second, the消费 sector, as the acceleration of full-year corporate profit growth is expected to gradually drive up household income and sales expenses,建议 timing allocations in the second half of the year; third, sectors related to "anti-involution"; fourth, the track of Chinese enterprises going global and enhancing global competitiveness. He stated that in terms of style allocation, due to the positive medium-term market outlook, the "growth" style may outperform the "value" style. With the持续推进 of "anti-involution,"推动 the narrowing of the PPI decline and the acceleration of industrial enterprise profits, the "cyclical" style is expected to outperform the "defensive" style, and large-cap and small-cap sectors are likely to maintain a相对均衡态势 in 2026.
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