Iranian Foreign Minister recently revealed the reasons behind Iran's rejection of US demands amid escalating tensions.

According to reports, on October 11, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi addressed questions about restarting negotiations with the United States and the conditions involved. He stated that Iran's position toward the US remains clear: "If they are prepared to negotiate on an equal basis, for mutual interests, based on mutual respect, and do not confuse negotiations with 'orders,' and are willing to engage in fair and balanced dialogue, we would also be ready for such negotiations."

Araghchi reiterated that bilateral negotiation topics are limited to nuclear issues, which has been Iran's consistent position. He noted that due to events during the UN General Assembly in New York and subsequent developments, Iran currently "does not see a foundation for reopening negotiations." Araghchi revealed that during this year's UN General Assembly in New York, both sides did make contact, and Iran expressed willingness to consult on relevant issues. However, the US position was that if Iran handed over all 60% enriched uranium, they would only delay the "snapback" sanctions mechanism by six months. Araghchi called this an "excessive, completely unreasonable, and absolutely unacceptable position," which Iran has clearly rejected, making the contact unproductive.

Araghchi stated that Iran had informed mediating parties that "no rational person would accept such demands." He said that if relevant countries were willing to permanently abandon the "snapback" mechanism, allow UN Security Council Resolution 2231 to terminate as scheduled on October 18, and completely remove Iran's issues from the Security Council agenda, then such requests would be worth considering. "But the United States has never accepted this."

Araghchi revealed that US Middle East Special Envoy Whitcoff had conveyed intentions for face-to-face, direct negotiations with Iran. Iran responded that negotiations should be conducted within a multilateral framework, inviting the UK, France, Germany, and IAEA Director General Grossi to participate jointly. However, Whitcoff rejected this proposal and was unwilling to attend meetings. Araghchi said: "If such negotiations are only to impose conditions, then it's better not to negotiate at all."

Araghchi stated that it was Western countries' greed that led to the deadlock in New York consultations, while Iran has sought solutions through all legal channels to protect national interests. He said that since the 2015 nuclear agreement was signed, the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, reimposed sanctions, and even attacked Iranian nuclear facilities during negotiations, demonstrating that "under such circumstances, negotiating with the US would only lead to deadlock."

Araghchi emphasized that this does not mean Iran completely rejects negotiations. "If a reasonable, balanced plan can be proposed, built on common interests and mutual respect, and can guarantee the interests of the Iranian people under equal conditions, we would certainly consider it seriously."

According to reports, on the same day, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander Tangsiri stated that the power to decide whether to open or close the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran's supreme leadership, and this decision will depend on the degree of external pressure on Iran's oil exports.

**Trade Friction Clouds Loom, Oil and Metals Both Plunge**

On Friday, global commodity markets were shrouded in trade friction uncertainty, with oil and metals sectors falling sharply.

As of the latest close, WTI crude futures prices fell to their lowest level since May. During Friday's night session, domestic crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at 445 yuan/barrel, down 21.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.55%, approaching lows since May.

Ye Haiwen, manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Sinotrans Futures Research Institute, believes that escalating trade friction expectations were the catalyst for this crude oil futures price decline. Additionally, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, easing Russia-Ukraine tensions, combined with weakening effects of US sanctions on Iran and Russia, have reduced geopolitical risks. More crude oil is expected to flow into the market, returning market focus to loose fundamental logic. On the demand side, the US government "shutdown" and expectations of new tariff policies cast a shadow over global energy demand prospects.

Off-season supply-demand imbalance is the main factor affecting oil prices. Guo Yanpeng, energy and chemical researcher at Zhonghui Futures, explains that regarding demand, global crude oil consumption typically peaks around July each year, then gradually declines starting in September. The end of the US crude oil consumption peak season is marked by Labor Day in early September, with global off-season crude oil consumption declining by 1-3 million barrels per day compared to peak season. On the supply side, OPEC+ remains in an expansion cycle, having cumulatively increased production by about 1.5 million barrels per day since formally expanding production in April. Regarding inventory, the latest EIA data shows significant inventory pressure from late 2025 to Q1 2026, with expected daily accumulation of 2.6 million barrels in Q4 2025 and 2.7 million barrels in Q1 2026, after which inventory pressure will gradually decline.

Looking ahead, Ye Haiwen states that from current absolute price levels, international oil prices have not yet fallen to lows since the US implemented "reciprocal tariff" policies in April. Under the influence of loose supply, continuously weakening demand, and receding geopolitical risks, crude oil prices are still expected to decline further next week. Subsequently, if US tariff and trade policies are implemented, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $55-65 per barrel.

Guo Yanpeng also believes oil prices still have downward space. "Next week, US tariff policy developments will significantly impact oil prices. Referring to the trade war launched by the US during the Qingming Festival period, oil prices may continue to decline in the short term," Guo said.

**Metals: Overall Maintaining Relatively Strong Operating Momentum**

On Friday, LME copper and LME tin fell more than 3%, giving back gains from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period. During domestic night trading that day, the metals sector declined across the board, with previously strong varieties showing particularly notable corrections.

Xiao Jing, metals analyst at SDIC Futures, believes the poor performance of the metals sector was mainly due to renewed tensions in trade relations.

Liu Peiyang, head of the metals group at Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute, also believes that Friday evening's sharp correction in the metals sector was mainly influenced by macro factors. Escalating trade friction expectations put overall pressure on financial markets, with global stock and commodity markets showing significant declines, making the metals sector no exception.

However, Liu Peiyang simultaneously noted that since the Fed restarted rate cuts in September, the market expects two more rate cuts within the year, and market liquidity is expected to continue improving, which will provide some support for metals price trends. Additionally, fundamentals for metals like copper remain relatively strong. Currently, global copper concentrate forward supply remains tight, with some mining companies recently lowering future production guidance, and domestic anode copper supply also tightening. Furthermore, intensifying supply-demand mismatches on the concentrate side have heated up spot market expectations for future finished copper supply tightening, thereby pushing up copper prices.

In Xiao Jing's view, significant fundamental differences among metals sector varieties lead to high market capital interest in strong varieties like copper and tin.

Looking forward, Xiao Jing believes base metal prices will move along supply-demand fundamentals. Sentiment-wise, main focus should be on strong varieties like copper and tin. Currently during LME market activity week, major mining supply-side damage has already dragged down copper concentrate production growth expectations for this year and next, requiring close attention to capital position changes. Additionally, continuous assessment of new round trade risk impacts on macro sentiment is needed.

Liu Peiyang believes that currently, macro drivers remain the core factor affecting metals. With the Fed in a rate-cutting cycle and US economic resilience remaining, the metals sector will overall maintain relatively strong operations. However, uncertainty in US tariff policies will bring some disturbance, which is also a risk that markets need to be particularly vigilant about next week.