ASML, the Dutch lithography equipment giant, will release its third-quarter 2025 financial report before the US stock market opens on October 15. According to Bloomberg analysts' expectations, ASML's third-quarter revenue was 7.706 billion euros, with an adjusted net profit of 2.067 billion euros and an adjusted EPS of 5.35 euros.
Review of the Previous Quarter's Performance
In the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, ASML laid the foundation for industry confidence with its performance of "exceeding expectations in revenue, profit, and orders". The financial report shows that the net sales in the quarter reached 7.7 billion euros, not only reaching the upper limit of the guidance range of 7.2 - 7.7 billion euros, but also 2.1% higher than the market - expected 7.54 billion euros, with a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin climbed to 53.7%, significantly exceeding the expected range of 50% - 53%, and the net profit margin simultaneously rose to 30%, driving the net profit to 2.3 billion euros, a year - on - year surge of 45%.
This strong performance stems from three core driving forces: First, the structural growth of the service business. The revenue from the upgraded services in the post - installation and after - sales links increased by 41.4% year - on - year. Among them, the upgrade demand for the NXE:3800 model was particularly strong, contributing 2.1 billion euros in revenue in a single quarter. Second, one - time gains and cost optimization. The reduction of non - recurring expenses and the lower - than - expected negative impact of tariffs jointly thickened the profit margin. Third, the demand resilience of EUV technology. Although the shipment volume was only 11 units, the average price of 230 million euros per unit supported 2.5 billion euros in revenue, accounting for 44.6% of the total revenue of the lithography system. It is worth noting that the Chinese market continued to make a stable contribution, with the revenue share in the quarter reaching 27%, meeting the company's long - term expected target of more than 25%.
Highlights of This Quarter's Performance
Financial Indicators: Revenue and Gross Profit Margin are Expected to Decline Periodically
According to the company's previous guidance, the net sales for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year will be between 7.4 billion and 7.9 billion euros, and the gross profit margin is expected to be between 50% and 52%, a significant decline compared to 53.7% in the second quarter. This adjustment is mainly affected by two factors: one is the gross profit margin dilution effect brought by the revenue recognition of High NA EUV equipment. Although this technology represents the future direction, the short - term production and delivery costs are high. The other is that under the uncertainty of the macro - economy, the customer order rhythm may be adjusted, coupled with the potential impact of tariff policies. However, the installation and after - sales service will still provide stable support, and it is expected that the net sales of this segment will reach about 2 billion euros, continuing the growth trend in the first half of the year.
Business Focus: The Promotion of High NA and the Demand Resilience of EUV
The third quarter will be a key observation period for the landing of High NA EUV technology. ASML plans to achieve a monthly production capacity of 2 units of this equipment by the end of 2025. The delivery progress and customer verification feedback in this quarter (such as the progress of Intel's 30,000 - wafer test) will directly affect market confidence. At the same time, whether the growth momentum of the EUV business continues is worthy of attention - the company previously expected the EUV business to grow by 30% year - on - year, and the expansion of AI - driven logic chips and the improvement of memory capital expenditure are the core supports. TSMC's 2nm process expansion plan may bring new order increments.
Risk Variables: Geopolitics and Market Demand Fluctuations
Geopolitical factors remain the biggest source of uncertainty. The proposed US tariff policy may increase the procurement costs of Chinese customers by 12% - 15%, and the new export control policy that the Netherlands may introduce at the end of the year may further restrict the shipment of high - end DUV equipment. In addition, the recovery rhythm of the memory chip market, the sustainability of the expansion of China's mature processes, and the suppression of semiconductor capital expenditure by the global macro - economy may all affect the order performance in this quarter.
Views of Wall Street Investment Banks
Many top investment banks collectively raised their ratings and target prices before the release of the financial report, demonstrating their recognition of ASML's long - term value. Among them, Morgan Stanley raised the rating to "overweight" with a target price as high as 950 euros, emphasizing the company's double potential for profit correction and cyclical recovery by 2027. Mizuho Securities also raised the rating to "outperform the market" with a target price of 930 euros, and the core logic is the strong demand for EUV technology and the certainty of profit growth in the next few years.
The view of UBS is quite representative. It significantly raised the target price by 25% from 750 euros to 940 euros, maintained a "buy" rating, and raised the earnings - per - share expectations for 2026 - 2027 by 10% - 15%. UBS specifically pointed out that the growth of AI - driven memory, the better - than - expected sales of smartphones and PCs, and the long - term opportunities brought by High NA technology will be the core catalysts for further share price increases. Deutsche Bank focused on the improvement of the memory market and raised the target price to 900 euros, believing that the recovery of memory capital expenditure sentiment will directly benefit ASML's order growth.
Although investment banks are generally bullish, they also have a consensus on short - term pressures. Some institutions mentioned that factors such as the dilution of the gross profit margin by High NA equipment in the third quarter and the Q3 guidance being lower than market consensus may trigger short - term fluctuations. However, in the long run, ASML's monopoly position in the EUV field and its technology - iteration ability are the core barriers to resisting cyclical risks.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI and Bloomberg data, for reference only.