Solar energy stocks continued their downward trend. At the time of writing, FLAT GLASS (06865) fell 6.04% to HKD 8.56. XINTE ENERGY (01799) dropped 5.5% to HKD 5.15. XINYI SOLAR (00968) declined 2.98% to HKD 2.93. TRIUMPH NEW EN (01108) decreased 2.62% to HKD 3.71.

The movement follows news that the 9% export tax rebate for solar products will be fully cancelled starting April 1st. This is anticipated to increase the cost per watt of photovoltaic modules by RMB 0.06 to RMB 0.07. Driven by this policy expectation and rising upstream costs, leading manufacturers such as LONGi Green Energy Technology, Trina Solar, and JA Technology have recently issued a series of price increase notices.

However, industry insiders indicate that the actual transaction price for TOPCon modules in utility-scale projects is only around RMB 0.68 to RMB 0.70 per watt, suggesting that quoted prices above RMB 0.89 have "virtually no actual shipments." Analysts suggest that in the short term, while first-quarter shipments are secure due to the policy change, this front-loading of demand harbors concerns. If overseas distributors complete stockpiling by the end of March, it could lead to an order gap in the second quarter.

Simultaneously, domestic market demand is also under pressure. Historically, the second quarter is a stable period for solar installations in China. Furthermore, as the base of installed capacity expands annually, the growth rate for new domestic installations is expected to potentially slow down by 2026.