Coal stocks continued their downward trend in Hong Kong trading. At press time, CHINA COAL (01898) fell 4.48% to HKD 10.87, YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) declined 3.71% to HKD 10.63, CHINA SHENHUA (01088) dropped 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and YANCOAL AUS (03668) slipped 0.87% to HKD 27.22.

A research report from Guotai Haitong Securities noted that coal prices had climbed above RMB 830 per ton, but the short-term surge beyond expectations may be nearing its end. In October, large-scale industrial coal output reached 410 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year but flat month-on-month.

The report highlighted that the fundamental driver behind the recent coal price rally was a structural shift in supply-demand dynamics since May, which will sustain upward price momentum in the medium term. Meanwhile, Dongwu Securities emphasized the high-dividend appeal of coal stocks, projecting stable earnings for industry leaders as prices stabilize after bottoming in Q2 2025.

The firm expects dividend yields for CHINA SHENHUA and Shaanxi Coal to gradually decline from around 4.5% in 2025 to approximately 3.5% by mid-2026, reflecting lower capital costs for insurers and sustained profitability.