Morgan Stanley has updated its risk-reward assessment for Galaxy Entertainment (00027). The firm has lowered its target price for the stock from HK$39 to HK$37, implying a potential upside of approximately 12% from the current share price. The investment rating is maintained at "In-Line with the Market."

The report states that the target price reduction is primarily due to a 4% downward revision in the forecast for 2026 equity free cash flow (FCFE). This adjustment reflects a 4% cut in the full-year EBITDA forecast. This revision incorporates the actual performance from the first quarter of 2026, while the lower full-year EBITDA forecast accounts for factors such as reduced revenue assumptions and increased promotional costs.

Morgan Stanley currently forecasts Galaxy Entertainment's property EBITDA for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be HK$15.2 billion, HK$16.9 billion, and HK$18.2 billion, respectively. This represents year-on-year changes of a 3% decrease, an 11% increase, and an 8% increase. The firm's EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment from 2026 to 2028 are approximately 5%, 2%, and 4% below the market consensus, respectively.