Aluminum market brief: Powell's dovish signals have ignited rate cut expectations, with LME aluminum closing up 1.12% over the past week. Domestic spot premiums have shifted from discounts to premiums, downstream operations are improving, and aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has slowed alongside seasonal demand recovery, suggesting continued aluminum price gains today.

**Aluminum Futures Market**: Powell's dovish signals have sparked rate cut expectations and weakened the US dollar, boosting metals demand outlook. LME aluminum surged strongly over the past week, with the latest closing price at $2,622 per ton, up $29 or 1.12%. Trading volume increased by 2,828 lots to 14,266 lots, while open interest decreased by 3,223 lots to 662,207 lots. Shanghai aluminum futures opened lower on Friday evening but recovered and moved higher driven by strong LME aluminum performance, with the main September 2510 contract closing at 20,755 yuan per ton, up 85 yuan or 0.41%.

London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory on August 22nd stood at 478,725 tons, down 800 tons or 0.17% from the previous trading day.

**Spot Market**: August 22nd spot aluminum prices showed increases, with A00 aluminum ingots quoted at 20,710 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan, and Guangdong A00 aluminum ingots at 20,660 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan.

**Macroeconomic Factors**: Fed Chairman Powell maintained a cautious tone during his Jackson Hole speech, acknowledging increased labor market risks while noting persistent inflation pressures. Although he hinted at potential rate cuts at the September meeting without explicit commitment, markets interpreted this as a dovish signal, with September rate cut probability rising to nearly 90%. This pushed the US Dollar Index to session lows, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated metals to non-US buyers and supporting aluminum prices at higher levels.

**Fundamental Structure Shows Marginal Improvement**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains stable with modest increases, but changes are limited and supply pressure remains manageable. On the demand side, downstream consumption shows weak but steady recovery, with domestic spot markets shifting from discounts to premiums and downstream operations improving. According to market information, domestic aluminum downstream processing leading companies' operating rates increased 0.8 percentage points week-over-week to 59.5% last week. The aluminum processing industry remains in a "weak but steady recovery" phase. Although Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, the pace has significantly slowed. Combined with gradually intensifying seasonal demand sentiment boosting purchasing activity, aluminum prices are expected to continue rising today.