Goldman Sachs' latest positioning analysis reveals a clear divergence: while both hedge funds and mutual funds are increasing their exposure to the AI trade, their stock selection is heading in fundamentally different directions. As of early Q3 2026, the analysis of 991 hedge funds with roughly $5.4 trillion in total equity holdings and 504 large-cap active mutual funds managing approximately $4.6 trillion in equity assets shows that hedge funds remain far more deeply embedded in the AI trade, yet both investor types are walking opposite paths when it comes to mega-cap tech and semiconductor names.

The Big Picture: Hedge Funds Go All-In on AI, Mutual Funds Still Significantly Underweight

The data, covering a combined $9.3 trillion in positions, shows hedge funds' overall exposure to AI trades is still much higher than that of mutual funds. However, both institutional categories made significant adjustments to their AI stock holdings during Q2 2026. Hedge fund portfolios remain tightly correlated with the AI trade, with returns and top holdings closely tracking AI-related volatility in recent months. Mutual funds have increased their stakes in AI infrastructure stocks, but not enough to keep pace with benchmark index weights, leaving them with a substantial underweight gap in the AI sector. This divergence is most pronounced among mega-cap tech stocks.

Mega-Cap Tech: The Four Titans Go Their Separate Ways

During Q2, hedge funds bought Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), while mutual funds trimmed both positions. Microsoft and Amazon were the only two large-cap AI tech names that hedge funds added to during the quarter. At the same time, hedge funds reduced stakes in several other major AI players, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE), and Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT). Conversely, hedge funds increased positions in Lam Research, Applied Materials, and ASML (NASDAQ: ASML), while mutual funds boosted exposure to Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and SiTime (NASDAQ: SITM).

Semiconductors and Memory: Mutual Funds Bottom-Fish While Hedge Funds Retreat

In the semiconductor and memory trade, the two camps are equally at odds. Mutual funds bought shares of AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), while hedge funds sold all three during the same period. This divergence is particularly noteworthy given that AMD, Micron, and SanDisk were among the most volatile names during the Q2 AI hardware selloff. Mutual funds chose to add counter-cyclically, whereas hedge funds opted to book profits or reduce risk exposure. Notably, Goldman's data shows that among all AI-related stocks tracked, Nvidia is the most underweighted name by mutual funds, with an average underweight of roughly 100 basis points. AMD's underweight sits at about 60 basis points.

The Biggest Consensus: AI Infrastructure as a United Front

Despite significant stock-level disagreements, both investor types have found broad common ground in AI infrastructure. Goldman identified 12 AI infrastructure stocks that were simultaneously added to by both hedge funds and mutual funds during Q2: American Electric Power (NASDAQ: AEP), AXT (NASDAQ: AXTI), Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE), CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), Flex (NASDAQ: FLEX), Lion Electric (NYSE: LGN), NiSource (NYSE: NI), Sanmina (NASDAQ: SANM), SiTime, Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX), Talen Energy (NYSE: TLN), and Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL). Both groups also bought Bloom Energy, Flex, and Seagate Technology, making these the clearest intersections in AI positioning. Bloom Energy and Flex provide power and manufacturing infrastructure for AI data centers, while Seagate directly benefits from surging AI storage demand. However, even though mutual funds have significantly raised their AI infrastructure weightings this year, the increases still lag benchmark index weight growth, leaving them deeply underweight across the broader AI sector, with Nvidia being the most prominent example.

Capital Outflows: Which AI Stocks Are Being Abandoned by Both Camps?

Both investor groups also trimmed a range of AI-related holdings, including Viavi Solutions (NASDAQ: VIAV), Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR), Argan (NYSE: AGX), MasTec (NYSE: MTZ), Corning (NYSE: GLW), and EQT (NYSE: EQT). Meanwhile, Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) stands out as a name that mutual funds bought while hedge funds reduced their positions.

Beyond AI: A Historic Overweight in Financials

Outside of AI positioning, Goldman's data reveals a historically significant signal: both hedge funds and mutual funds are currently overweight the financial sector, marking only the third time this has occurred in Goldman's historical data. During Q2, hedge funds' net overweight in financials rose by more than 300 basis points, reaching the highest level since before the global financial crisis. Mutual funds' overweight in the sector also climbed to its highest level since at least 2012. Large-cap financial stocks that both groups added include Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF), Corpay (NYSE: CPAY), Fiserv (NYSE: FI), and Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ: IBKR). Goldman also identified six "shared favorites" that are top holdings in both hedge fund and mutual fund portfolios: Boeing (NYSE: BA), Capital One Financial, Mastercard (NYSE: MA), SpaceX (NYSE: SPCX), Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO), and Visa (NYSE: V). This basket of shared favorites has delivered a 29% year-to-date cumulative return, outperforming the S&P 500 equal-weight index's 16% gain. Both groups are also heavily overweight healthcare, but diverge on consumer stocks: hedge funds are overweight discretionary and underweight staples, while mutual funds take the exact opposite stance.

Conclusion

Goldman's positioning report reveals a new market order taking shape: on the main AI trade route, hedge funds and mutual funds are heading in the same direction but on different vehicles. Mutual funds are actively building positions in AI infrastructure, while hedge funds are booking profits in mega-cap tech and semiconductors. Their disagreement intensifies amid the AI hardware pullback, yet they find rare consensus in the financial sector. With Nvidia's earnings report and the Jackson Hole symposium approaching, this $9.3 trillion AI positioning map is setting the stage for the next phase of market direction. AI trade volatility is now tightly tied to hedge fund returns, and mutual funds still hold a significant underweight gap in the AI sector, meaning that whether the AI trade's next leg is higher or a deeper correction, an unprecedented wave of institutional repositioning is on the horizon.