On August 15th, Friday, spot gold is trading around $3338 per ounce. Gold prices declined on Thursday as U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, and unemployment claims decreased, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields while reducing the likelihood of a super-sized rate cut in September.

Market Analysis: Reviewing last Friday's non-farm payroll data release, which had a negative impact on the dollar and consequently benefited the gold market. At that time, the dollar began a significant decline from near the 100 level, while gold surged strongly from the 3280 level, reaching highs near 3368, with price fluctuations exceeding 80 points. Internal Fed disagreements, weak employment data, and potential tariff policies have cast uncertainty over future monetary policy. The dovish stance of some Fed officials reflects deep concerns about labor market deterioration, while cautious attitudes from others show different assessments of economic conditions within the Fed. Facing external pressures and global economic uncertainty, the Fed needs to find a balance between inflation and employment. The September policy meeting will be a critical juncture, with the Fed's decisions having profound impacts on both U.S. and global economies.

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold's technical signals show slight bearish momentum. With cooling expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts and potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold prices may continue facing pressure. However, in the medium to long term, global economic and geopolitical uncertainties still provide support for gold. Additionally, investors should closely monitor upcoming U.S. core PCE data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and the August employment report, which will determine whether gold can regain its upward momentum. Today's session will release U.S. July industrial production monthly rate, U.S. August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, August New York Fed manufacturing index, and U.S. July retail sales monthly rate (known as "terror data"), which investors need to focus on.

Yesterday's gold session saw an early surge above 3375 before pulling back. The European session showed some volatility and consolidation, ultimately retracing below the previous low of 3331, indicating that the recent rebound was a false rally that did not change the downward rhythm. This major rebound was influenced by CPI data, with positive CPI numbers intensifying September rate cut expectations and driving gold prices higher. However, this was a short-term news-driven impact that did not establish a rhythmic reversal. Gold's breach of 3370 was only a false breakout without establishing above it, representing ineffective upward movement with incomplete decline.

Yesterday's gold decline showed signals of piercing through weekly lows. With today's weekly close, my approach continues to be bearish on gold, but confirmation from the Asian session is needed. First, during the early session, we can short at the current price of 3340 to see if gold can break below 3332, this wave's rebound starting point. If it breaks successfully, there will be further downside space. If gold continues to rebound, we can establish short positions near 3348 with protection at 3355, targeting 3330 for a potential breakdown. During the European session, we'll adjust strategies based on breakdown conditions. The continuation strategy is to wait for rebounds to 3340 after successful breakdown to continue shorting gold. Focus on 3300 level support during European and U.S. sessions.