Walt Disney will release its latest quarterly financial report on November 13, 2025 (before U.S. market hours). The market is focused on the continuity of earnings from the parks and streaming segments, as well as the progress in restructuring the sports segment.

Market Forecast

According to Tiger Trade data, the market consensus expects Walt Disney's fourth-quarter revenue to reach $22.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.74%; earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $1.049, down 8.02% year-on-year.

In its last quarterly report, the company indicated an upward revision of its full-year EPS guidance. However, for this quarter, the company projects that revenue, EBIT, and EPS growth will be moderate or slightly decline year-on-year. The net profit margin and gross profit margin forecasts have not been disclosed for this quarter. Highlights of the company's main business include improved profit margins and average spending per guest in the parks and experiences segment and better cash flow quality from profitability in the streaming segment. The largest growth prospects within existing businesses lie in the dual main lines of entertainment and experiences: Entertainment segment revenue is about $10.704 billion, up approximately 1% year-on-year; experiences segment revenue is about $9.086 billion, up approximately 8% year-on-year, indicating that the willingness of users to pay and the capacity release brought by park expansions continue to be effective.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Walt Disney's revenue was $23.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.14%; the gross profit margin was about 38.55%, an improvement year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company was about $5.262 billion, up approximately 60.67% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit margin was about 22.25%, an improvement year-on-year; adjusted EPS was $1.61, up approximately 15.83% year-on-year. Key financial and business highlights include a streaming business profit of approximately $346 million, a 13% year-on-year increase in theme park profit, but a 28% year-on-year decline in traditional entertainment television profit, and a 5% year-on-year decrease in sports segment revenue. For the main business segments, entertainment segment revenue was about $10.704 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%; experiences segment revenue was about $9.086 billion, up approximately 8% year-on-year; sports revenue was about $4.308 billion, down approximately 5% year-on-year, showing a clear structural differentiation.

This Quarter Outlook

Resilience and Absorption Capacity in Demand and Pricing for Parks and Experiences

The key to continued high-quality growth in parks and experiences lies in the dual improvement of "park attendance and per capita spending." Last quarter, the revenue of this segment grew approximately 8% year-on-year, contributing significantly to operating profit growth, closely related to park expansions, holiday season management, and the synergy effects of content IP. In recent quarters, U.S. domestic parks have recorded significant profit increases, showing that improved product mix and differential pricing strategies have effectively translated into profits.

The market is focusing on two points this quarter: one is whether the marginal impact of the new Universal Studios park will be offset by Disney's product and event updates; the other is whether the recovery of visitor flows to the parks in China and Japan can continue to support the growth pace of the international segment.

Considering the high contribution of the experiences segment to free cash flow, if it maintains a mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth rate this quarter and continues precise cost structure management, profit resilience will still have a basis for continuation. Potential risks include macroeconomic consumption and tourism cycle fluctuations, especially the impact of cross-border travel and domestic disposable income changes on visitor flow and per capita spending, but last quarter's profit performance indicates that operations still have a buffer.

Profitability Path of Streaming and Rebalancing of Content Costs

Last quarter, the streaming segment achieved a profit of approximately $346 million, marking the success of the combined strategy of subscription price adjustments, ARPU improvement, and cost control. The core variables this quarter are the synergy between subscription growth and ARPU: if Disney+ and Hulu continue to strengthen ARPU through content scheduling optimization and pricing strategies while controlling production and marketing expenses, profitability is likely to continue.

On the other hand, the high baseline effect and variability in individual film performance on the content side may disrupt short-term profits. Last quarter, the film business recorded a loss, reminding the market that the marginal returns on content investment are not linear. This quarter, focus should be on the platform's scheduling strategy for key IPs and the recovery degree of the advertising business. If advertising and distribution improve, the profit quality of the streaming segment will further enhance.

From a cash flow perspective, the streaming segment turning profitable alleviates the group's pressure on capital expenditures and content cash outflow, aiding in a more stable strategic investment pace in sports and park expansions. However, maintaining the high levels of subscription and ARPU, as well as rising content costs driven by industry competition, remain risks.

Strategic Restructuring and Short-term Revenue Pressure in the Sports Business

The sports segment's revenue declined approximately 5% year-on-year last quarter, with traditional television networks' profitability under pressure, making the transformation of ESPN a structural focus. ESPN's ongoing independent streaming transition and binding with top sports IP are expected to enhance user engagement and subscription pricing power in the long term.

The focus this quarter is on two aspects: the channel and advertising structure restructuring during the direct-to-consumer (DTC) transition could suppress traditional revenues in the short term; the impact of asset integration and launch timing coordinated with alliances on mid-term user growth.

If platform pricing matches content strength and penetration improves through bundling and distribution cooperation, the revenue structure is likely to gradually improve. However, amid declining traditional linear TV demand and advertising cycles, the sports segment may continue to face short-term revenue pressure. With management's upward revision of full-year EPS, the market will observe whether the sports segment's loss narrowing aligns with the group's profitability goals.

Recovery Trajectory of Entertainment Content and Film Business

The entertainment segment's revenue last quarter was approximately $10.704 billion, up about 1% year-on-year, but the film business recorded a loss, reflecting an imbalance in content supply and box office returns. This quarter, the focus is on rebalancing the content mix: improving series IP production utilization and controlling costs to hedge against box office volatility; additionally, achieving full chain monetization (theater, streaming, licensing, and park scenes) on the platform. If content cost controls and scheduling optimization are implemented, the segment's profit margins are expected to steadily recover.

Meanwhile, the structural decline in traditional TV will continue to drag down overall operating profits of the segment, relying on the combined support of streaming profitability and park cash flows. The market will monitor management's scheduling and discipline in production and marketing expenses to balance innovation investment and profitability stability.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional opinions are mostly bullish, emphasizing the earnings resilience in parks and streaming and the upward revision of full-year EPS guidance. Bank of America reiterated its "Buy" rating with a target price of $140, stating that Q3 earnings were "solid" while noting that Q4 guidance potentially falling below market expectations is causing stock price pressure but finding the company's statements on sports assets and platform launches "encouraging."

J.P. Morgan reiterated its "Overweight" rating with a price target of $138, believing that the profitability of the experiences business, direct-to-consumer business, and sports business all exceeded its expectations, pointing out that DTC profitability improvement mainly came from "subscription price increases, user growth, reduced content production and marketing expenses."

Evercore ISI maintained its "Outperform" rating with a target price of $140, calling the outlook "healthy" with "good profitability performance in DTC and theme parks." Overall, bullish views dominate, focusing this quarter's attention on the continuity of park profits, consolidation of streaming profitability, and the pace of sports segment restructuring.

Combining institutional analyses, if this quarter's revenue and EPS fall within the expected range and management maintains positive guidance for full-year profits, market confidence in mid-to-long-term cash flows is likely to continue improving, though caution remains with the short-term pressures on sports and traditional TV.