Goldman Sachs: Expects Macau Gaming's Strong Momentum to Continue, Recommends Buying SANDS CHINA LTD (01928), MGM CHINA (02282) and GALAXY ENT (00027)

Stock News
09/15

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that Macau gaming operators attribute the strong performance of recent Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) to intensive mega events, wealth effects driven by stock market gains, relaxed visa policies, and ongoing safety concerns in Thailand and the Philippines, which have led more mainland tourists to choose Hong Kong and Macau as destinations. For the National Day Golden Week, based on nearly fully booked hotels and client communications, gaming operators generally expect strong demand, while the National Games will not have a significant impact on gaming revenue. Overall, the industry expects strong growth momentum to continue for the remainder of this year. The firm expects Macau's full-year gaming revenue to grow 9% year-over-year in 2025, implying 14% year-over-year growth from September to December this year, and 7% growth in 2026.

In terms of stocks, SANDS CHINA LTD (01928) is the firm's top pick, as its share price has not fully reflected its ability to regain market share and dividend growth potential, although the company's recent adjustments to promotional activities and reinvestment rates may pressure third-quarter profit margins, creating short-term downside risks. The firm assigns a target price of HK$24.8 and a "Buy" rating. Additionally, the firm is optimistic about GALAXY ENT (00027), expecting its market share to have upside potential, driven by the new Capella hotel and intensive mega events. It assigns a target price of HK$55.9 and a "Buy" rating. As for MGM CHINA (02282), its valuation is most attractive, with the firm expecting the company to maintain a 15%-16% market share, offering a dividend yield of 5.1%, and likely to absorb some gaming volume from satellite casinos that are about to close. Target price is HK$20.4 with a "Buy" rating.

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