Both Washington and Tehran are touting "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz, yet live shipping data tells a far more nuanced story, revealing that neither side has truly seized command of the strategic waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a central flashpoint in the ongoing conflict with Iran. Over the past few months, both the U.S. and Iran have asserted the upper hand, with their contradictory statements casting significant doubt over the actual navigational conditions in the strait. However, shipping data is now depicting a reality that diverges sharply from the rhetoric on either side.

Where the shipping lanes have shifted

According to vessel tracking firm Kpler, more than 80% of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have opted for the Omani-side corridor, a route sanctioned by the United Nations but vehemently opposed by Tehran. Iran has previously declared sovereignty over the strait and has struck dozens of vessels attempting to sail along Oman's northern coastline. Despite the lingering threat of attack, the vast majority of ships are currently disregarding Iranian demands and passing through under the protective umbrella of the U.S. Navy.

On Wednesday, Iranian lawmaker Abbas Moghtadaei, vice chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Iran International that Tehran and Oman are on the verge of issuing a joint statement announcing a new shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, independent of the southern (Omani) route. He offered no further details on the proposal.

"It is becoming increasingly evident that Iran has at least partially lost its grip on the strait," said Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler's head of crude oil analysis.

A dramatic pivot in maritime traffic

Just a month ago, Kpler detected almost no vessels using the Omani corridor; today, that figure has surged past 80%. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in traffic along Iran's preferred route is making it more difficult for Tehran to impose transit fees on ships passing through the strait, as it did in the spring. With the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran expiring this week, Iran could theoretically resume levying tolls, though Kpler notes there is currently no clear evidence that it has done so.

"Most parties in the Middle East are unwilling to pay such fees, so the Oman route is absolutely the most logical choice," said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners.

In parallel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz and then transfer their crude to customer tankers beyond the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, notes that to evade Iranian attacks, these tankers often switch off their transponders, sometimes for weeks at a time, creating what is known as "dark shipping." Such vessels may elude traditional tracking services like Kpler, though some can still be spotted via satellite. The U.S., for its part, relies on a massive naval deployment in the region to continuously monitor vessel movements through the strait.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated last week that the combined volume of oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz or being diverted around it totals approximately 15 million barrels per day, edging closer to the pre-war average of around 20 million barrels per day.

Iran's deterrence remains intact but diminished

These figures prompted President Trump to declare on Monday that the U.S. has "complete control" over the strait. Yet Iran continues to launch attacks, and oil volumes remain noticeably below pre-war levels, so this assertion does not prove Washington has fully commandeered the waterway. Likewise, Tehran does not entirely control this critical chokepoint either.

Pickering suggests that if Iran's goal was "control," it never truly had it; rather, its more significant objective has likely been to demonstrate coercive capability through deterrence, which it still retains to some degree. However, if the U.S.-published tanker data is broadly accurate, Iran's deterrence and control over the Strait of Hormuz have indeed weakened compared to a month or two ago.

Lipow cautions that the market should treat current headlines about strait control with caution, but "it's safe to say Iran has partially lost control of the strait."

Could a Hormuz transit deal pave the way for renewed U.S.-Iran talks?

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is also being shaped by negotiations between Iran and Oman. The two countries are discussing restoring freedom of navigation through the strait without U.S. involvement, an arrangement that could further impact oil shipments and control over the waterway, though specifics remain unclear.

Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar's Foreign Ministry, described the Iran-Oman discussions as an important step toward restarting a broader diplomatic process. The talks currently focus on maritime traffic arrangements for the strategic waterway, which has seen a significant drop in shipping volumes since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. Al-Ansari stated that if an agreement can be reached on the Strait of Hormuz, mediators would find it easier to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Qatar has also previously emphasized that the primary goal is to restore normal navigation through the strait and create conditions for a wider diplomatic accord.

For now, U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled. On Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that there are currently no talks or dialogues with Iran, nor any plans for them in the future.