Abstract

Old National Bancorp will report second-quarter results on July 22, 2026 Pre-MKt; current expectations center on revenue of 717.88 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of 0.63, with investors closely watching net interest margin behavior and the pace of operating cost normalization.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest quarter’s projections, the market looks for Old National Bancorp to deliver revenue of 717.88 million US dollars, up 15.26% year over year, EBIT of 363.18 million US dollars, up 33.28% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.63, up 21.82% year over year; margin guidance for gross margin and a net-profit-margin outlook have not been provided. The company’s core engine remains its community banking franchise, where stabilization in net interest margin and disciplined expense management are expected to frame a constructive operating setup. Within the mix, community banking is positioned as the most promising segment this quarter, effectively encompassing the company’s activities and expected to generate around 717.88 million US dollars in revenue, up 15.26% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Old National Bancorp reported revenue of 694.92 million US dollars, gross margin was not provided, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of 234.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 35.79%, and adjusted EPS of 0.61, representing 44.34% year-over-year revenue growth and 35.56% year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS. A notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter expansion in GAAP net income of 7.87%, reflecting improving earnings capacity on a larger revenue base and disciplined costs. Community Banking underpinned the performance mix; at the company level, revenue advanced 44.34% year over year to 694.92 million US dollars, while segment-specific year-over-year detail was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Community Banking performance and revenue drivers

Consensus expects Old National Bancorp to post revenue of 717.88 million US dollars in the current quarter, a 15.26% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of 0.63, up 21.82% year over year. This outlook implies continued revenue scale and operating leverage, consistent with the prior quarter’s strong top-line base of 694.92 million US dollars and demonstrated expense discipline. The expected 33.28% year-over-year growth in EBIT to 363.18 million US dollars suggests that incremental revenue conversion into operating profit remains solid, even as net interest margin dynamics and noninterest revenue cadence determine the exact degree of operating leverage.

Within community banking, the quarter’s revenue trajectory will be shaped by the interplay of earning-asset growth, deposit mix, and pricing discipline. Loan growth commentary from the most recent quarter indicated healthy pipelines and a stable core-deposit backdrop; if this dynamic persists, it should support net interest income stability or modest growth even as funding costs remain a factor. Fee revenues, which contributed to the previous period’s performance strength, will also be a swing variable; stable or slightly better fee trends would complement net interest income to achieve the consensus revenue level and help sustain adjusted EPS at the projected 0.63.

Cost control remains a centerpiece for profitability preservation in the current backdrop. The prior quarter’s results highlighted disciplined expense management, and the current forecasts imply that this discipline continues. With EBIT expected to outpace revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, operating efficiency should improve, which would be consistent with the relatively high net profit margin reported last quarter. The absence of a formal gross-margin metric is not unusual for a bank; instead, investors will judge margin quality via net interest margin, fee mix, and the ratio of noninterest expense to revenue.

Scale benefits and fee-income expansion as the largest growth opportunity

The largest incremental earnings opportunity this quarter is the combination of revenue scale and the incremental operating leverage implied by the EBIT outlook. The expected 33.28% year-over-year expansion in EBIT vs. 15.26% revenue growth underscores that fixed and semi-fixed costs are being leveraged more efficiently as the balance sheet and fee platforms scale. If the company can hold the line on compensation, occupancy, and technology spend growth relative to revenue, the EBIT profile should exceed topline growth and provide support for the adjusted EPS trajectory at 0.63.

Fee income vectors across wealth-related and other service-based lines offer an additional lever. The last quarter’s commentary pointed to strong fee generation, which, if repeated, would diversify revenue and partially buffer any net interest margin fluctuations. For shareholders, steady fee income alongside resilient net interest income tends to reduce earnings volatility; this blend is important for how the market will interpret the quality of revenue and the sustainability of earnings beyond a single quarter.

Capital allocation is another mechanism that can compound per-share earnings gains. While the current quarter’s consensus already bakes in growth for revenue and EBIT, incremental buyback deployment or continued common dividends can support EPS durability. That said, the quarterly trajectory will still depend primarily on the core engine—balance sheet growth at prudent spreads, complemented by consistent fee economics and tight expense control—so any capital actions work best as an enhancer rather than the central driver of the quarter.

Quarter-specific stock price drivers

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely be most sensitive to the direction of net interest margin, the expense run-rate vs. expectations, and the tone of management’s outlook. Investors are tuning into the margin narrative to judge whether deposit costs have plateaued and asset yields are holding, which together drive net interest income sustainability. A stable or improving margin read-through would pair favorably with the expected 15.26% revenue growth and support the implied operating leverage that underpins the 33.28% EBIT increase.

Noninterest expense is the second essential lever in this quarter’s print. The prior quarter’s cost discipline contributed to sequential net income growth of 7.87%; if management reports a similarly contained expense line, it will validate the consensus path for adjusted EPS of 0.63. Conversely, any deviation from disciplined expense trends would compress operating leverage and put pressure on the EBIT outlook, which, given the current valuation context, could drive a more muted price reaction even if topline meets expectations.

Credit quality commentary rounds out the key narrative for the quarter’s stock reaction. Last quarter’s discussion described sound credit, and markets will look for confirmation that nonperforming trends, net charge-offs, and reserve levels remain well-managed. A steady credit profile, combined with stable margin and contained expenses, would argue for earnings durability and help justify the prevailing bullish skew in institutional expectations. Guidance on balance sheet growth, fee revenue cadence, and capital actions will provide the final contours for how investors extend these quarterly dynamics into the back half of the year.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views predominate in the current preview cycle, with the balance of commentary pointing to year-over-year revenue growth of 15.26%, adjusted EPS of 0.63, and EBIT up 33.28% as supportive of a constructive outlook; across the opinions collected, the bullish side outweighs bearish calls by a clear margin. The consensus rating profile skews positive, reflected in an average stance characterized as overweight and a mean price target around 28.20 US dollars, which is above recent trading levels and implicitly endorses upside if execution tracks expectations. A notable sell-side house has also affirmed a 28.00 US dollars price target, reinforcing the sense that valuation can be supported by the projected revenue and operating-profit trajectory this quarter.

Analysts emphasizing the bullish case point to three pillars. The first is the anticipated stabilization in margin, which, together with ongoing balance sheet scale, should keep net interest income resilient enough to deliver 717.88 million US dollars in revenue. The second is expense discipline: a cleaner cost run-rate is central to converting mid-teens revenue growth into low-thirties EBIT growth year over year, thereby validating the projected operating leverage embedded in 363.18 million US dollars of EBIT. The third is earnings quality: a blend of net interest revenue and recurring fee income, backed by stable credit metrics, can underpin the 0.63 adjusted EPS expectation and reduce variability in quarterly performance.

Strategically, bullish analysts argue that the combination of revenue expansion and operating efficiency evident in recent quarters can carry into the current print. This perspective leans on the prior quarter’s sequential net income growth of 7.87% and a high net profit margin of 35.79% as proof points that the earnings algorithm is functioning. The majority view expects management’s commentary to emphasize disciplined growth, continued cost control, and consistency in fee generation; together, those factors would likely encourage investors to ascribe a supportive multiple to earnings, consistent with a mean price target around the high-20s. The focus, therefore, is not on outsized beats but on the continuity of execution: meeting the 717.88 million US dollars revenue and 0.63 adjusted EPS marks while maintaining a clear path to sustained operating leverage and stable asset quality. If that narrative holds on July 22, 2026 Pre-MKt, the prevailing bullish stance suggests the shares can be rewarded for both delivery and forward visibility.