Market Analysis On November 12, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures main contract (2601) opened at 86,760 yuan/ton and closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, marking a slight decline of 0.21% from the previous settlement price. Trading volume reached 1,145,329 lots, while open interest stood at 528,966 lots, up from 526,493 lots the previous day. According to SMM spot price data, the current basis is -4,400 yuan/ton (electric-grade lithium carbonate average price minus futures price). Warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate totaled 28,287 lots, an increase of 188 lots from the prior session.

Spot Market Overview SMM data shows battery-grade lithium carbonate prices at 81,400–85,200 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 80,600–81,600 yuan/ton, also rising by 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate climbed by $8 to $1,020/ton. Market sentiment remains bullish, but downstream material producers are cautious, limiting purchases to essential needs. Some transactions occurred at lower intraday prices, though most deals were settled via point pricing.

Negotiations for long-term supply agreements for next year are underway, with discussions primarily focused on pricing coefficients. On the supply side, lithium salt plants are operating at high capacity, with spodumene and salt lake-based production maintaining over 60% utilization rates. Domestic lithium carbonate output in November is expected to remain steady compared to October.

Demand remains robust, driven by rapid growth in both commercial and passenger segments of the new energy vehicle market. The energy storage sector also shows strong supply-demand dynamics, with supply constraints persisting.

Strategic Partnership Announcement On November 12, Hypontech issued a voluntary disclosure announcing a 10-year strategic cooperation agreement with CATL (寧德時代), effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2035. Under the agreement, Hypontech will procure battery cells and systems exclusively from CATL, which guarantees product quality and offers priority supply at competitive prices. Both parties will update their three-year cooperation targets annually by December 1 and sign corresponding memorandums. From 2026 to 2028, Hypontech commits to purchasing a cumulative minimum of 200GWh.

Trading Strategy Recent inventory drawdowns provide some support to futures, but downstream buyers remain hesitant above 85,000 yuan/ton. Mine resumptions are progressing, with gradual supply increases expected. Market participants should monitor consumption trends and inventory inflection points—any weakening in demand or mine restarts could shift inventories from depletion to accumulation, potentially pressuring prices.

Single Futures: Adopt a wait-and-see approach, focusing on inventory and consumption trends, while considering hedging opportunities at higher levels. Spread Trades: None Cross-Commodity: None Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None Options: Sell out-of-the-money call options.

Key Risks: 1. Sustained stronger-than-expected demand. 2. Unexpected disruptions in mine supply. 3. Macro sentiment and position adjustments.