On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, Shanghai silver futures led the gains, surging by 11% during the session and outperforming other precious metals. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as complex overseas geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies fueled a rise in safe-haven sentiment, once again drawing investor interest toward precious metals. Silver is still expected to be the most volatile and resilient star commodity in the market by 2026, but its upward trend requires further confirmation from a bullish gold market.

U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions are escalating. With the U.S. deploying significant military forces to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, and nuclear negotiations with Iran facing uncertainty, the risk of conflict has intensified. Currently, both sides are in a critical pre-conflict window, with the third round of indirect talks scheduled for February 26, focusing primarily on restrictions regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Additionally, the resurgence of U.S. tariffs is supporting safe-haven sentiment. Although the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariff policy implemented by former President Trump under IEEPA was illegal and must be halted with refunds issued, this does not affect his ability to impose tariffs under other domestic laws. The U.S. President subsequently announced a 10% global tariff, which was later raised to 15% on February 21. On February 23, U.S. media reported that the government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on approximately six industries, including large-scale batteries and energy storage, citing national security concerns.

The performance of precious metals during the Spring Festival once again demonstrated their sensitivity to macroeconomic events. Short-term volatility in silver has intensified, with attention focused on the impact of geopolitical developments and adjustments in overseas tariffs.