A research report from Guojin Securities indicates that as GUOQUAN (02517) upgrades its community stores to a larger store model and continues to expand its network into lower-tier markets, its market share is expected to increase further. The firm forecasts net profits attributable to parent company shareholders for 2026-2028 to be RMB 631 million, RMB 793 million, and RMB 940 million, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 16.33x, 13.01x, and 10.96x. The "Buy" rating is maintained.
Key points from Guojin Securities are as follows:
On April 14, 2026, the company disclosed its latest business performance for the first quarter of 2026. It expects Q1 2026 revenue to reach RMB 2.2-2.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 31.3%-37.2% compared to Q1 2025. Core operating profit is projected to be RMB 185-205 million, up about 45.3%-61.0% year-on-year.
The company is deeply implementing its "Community Central Kitchen" strategy, with steady expansion of its rural store network. By the end of March 2026, the total number of stores reached 11,758, a net increase of 1,637 stores compared to the same period last year. Performance in township markets was particularly strong, with a net addition of 113 stores, bringing the total number of stores in township markets to 3,123. Through the integration of online and offline sales and the "GUOQUAN Quick Buy" model, the company has enhanced the consumer shopping experience, strengthening both store coverage and market penetration.
The company's diversified product portfolio and multi-channel, multi-scenario layout effectively meet diverse consumer demands. Meanwhile, organizational evolution focused on regional operations has significantly boosted the effectiveness of frontline staff, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency over the long term. Benefiting from stable operational improvements and increased government subsidies, the company has achieved core profit growth that significantly outpaces revenue growth, demonstrating strong operational resilience and earnings flexibility.
By successfully embedding the brand into consumers' daily cooking routines, the company is well-positioned to meet the growing demand for high-quality, convenient ingredients in lower-tier markets. Leveraging the instant delivery capability of "GUOQUAN Quick Buy," the brand's community convenience attributes are further strengthened, which is expected to continuously increase customer loyalty. As stock-keeping units evolve and penetrate multiple usage scenarios, brand loyalty is translating into repeat purchase behavior, contributing to long-term organic growth momentum.
Risk factors include potential product volatility due to geopolitical risks, intensified competition from rivals in lower-tier markets, and lower-than-expected capital returns from store expansion.