【1】Market Performance: The BU 2602 contract rose to intraday highs before retreating, closing at 2,960 (+0.68%), with a session high of 2,997 and low of 2,943. Over the past seven days, prices dipped 1.0%, reflecting range-bound trading. The next-month 2603 contract gained 0.51%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term prices lower than deferred contracts.

【2】Spot Market: ① Shandong heavy-duty bitumen spot prices held steady at 2,930 yuan/ton, remaining at a 30 yuan/ton discount to futures (-20 yuan/ton over seven days). ② East China spot prices were unchanged at 3,150 yuan/ton, with a 190 yuan/ton premium to futures (-20 yuan/ton weekly).

【3】Crack Spreads: The BU-Brent spread widened to -239 yuan/ton (+58 yuan/ton weekly). BU’s front-month rose 0.7% while Brent fell 1.2% (based on 3:00 PM settlement). Persistent oil market uncertainties complicate bitumen’s hedging role; crack spreads warrant caution.

【4】Fundamentals Update: On December 10, the U.S. seized a sanctioned VLCC carrying Venezuelan crude, escalating tensions and potentially disrupting 900,000 bpd of exports. As Venezuela’s heavy crude-derived diluted bitumen is a key feedstock for Shandong refiners, supply disruptions may tighten discounts (currently at $12/bbl). While the news spurred early-session gains, weak seasonal demand limits sustained upside. Weekly data shows tepid bitumen sales, with winter stockpiling demand skewed toward discounted cargoes amid sub-3,000 yuan/ton spot prices. Monitor geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine energy strikes, Venezuela tensions) for oil price volatility.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentals remain weak—price upside is capped by soft demand and inventory pressure. Winter stocking trends and OPEC+ output hikes may drag oil (and bitumen) lower. Technically, prices are consolidating near multi-year lows; stabilization signals are pending (historical Q1 rebounds suggest potential for a minor bounce post-winter).

【6】Strategy: Maintain a bearish range-trading stance.