Goldman Sachs recently released a preview report for Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN.US)'s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and the upcoming Investor Day. The firm maintained its "Neutral" rating on Lumen while raising its 12-month price target to $5.5 from $5. Goldman Sachs forecasts that Lumen's fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA will reach $806 million, slightly above the market consensus of $792 million. Quarterly revenue is projected at $3.02 billion, marginally below the consensus estimate of $3.04 billion. Based on these projections, the company's full-year 2025 EBITDA is expected to hit $3.4 billion, at the upper end of management's previously provided guidance range of $3.2-$3.4 billion. This is primarily attributed to the company's cost-control initiatives and an improvement in the rate of decline for its legacy businesses. Regarding cash flow, Goldman Sachs anticipates Lumen's fourth-quarter free cash flow (FCF) to be -$435 million, with full-year FCF at $1.37 billion, aligning with the company's guidance of $1.2-$1.4 billion. However, the firm cautions of a downside risk to this figure due to potential delays in tax refunds resulting from a potential U.S. federal government shutdown—the company had originally expected to receive a $400 million tax refund in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, considering Lumen's plans to refinance debt at higher interest rates between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its FCF estimates for the company for 2026-2027. For the 2026 performance guidance, Goldman Sachs notes that Lumen's management expects full-year EBITDA to exceed $3.5 billion, which includes a contribution of $200-$250 million from the mass markets business. Excluding the impact of the proposed sale of consumer fiber assets to AT&T (T.US) for $5.75 billion (net proceeds approximately $4.8 billion), and assuming the transaction closes as expected in early 2026, the company's 2026 EBITDA would still surpass $3.2 billion. Goldman Sachs predicts Lumen's 2026 free cash flow will be $1 billion. While prepayments from the PCF business will provide some support, a substantial tax payment of approximately $1 billion is expected to offset around $1 billion in capital expenditure savings. Lumen's Investor Day, scheduled for February 25, 2026, is viewed as a key catalyst. Goldman Sachs expects Lumen's management to unveil five-year targets for EBITDA margin, interest expense, and capital expenditure. They also anticipate further disclosure of operational data for the PCF business and the Lumen Digital division, which would enhance transparency regarding the contribution of growth initiatives and the moderating decline of legacy businesses. Should the asset sale to AT&T be successfully completed, company management may also outline a subsequent capital allocation framework. This could include increased investment in network infrastructure to support AI workload growth, further debt reduction to achieve target leverage ratios, and strategic mergers and acquisitions in high-growth areas such as AI security and edge computing.