Who Can Immediately Power AI? The Undervalued "Value" of Bitcoin Mining Companies

Deep News
09/22

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented demand for electricity, yet the supply capable of immediately meeting this need remains extremely limited.

According to a Morgan Stanley research report dated September 21st, the United States alone faces a data center power gap of up to 45 gigawatts (GW) between 2025 and 2028. Even considering innovative solutions such as natural gas and nuclear power, the shortage persists.

Unlike new projects that require years to connect to the grid, Bitcoin mining companies possess ready-made, grid-connected large-scale sites with established power capacity. The report indicates that US Bitcoin miners control approximately 6.3 GW of operational large-scale sites, plus an additional 2.5 GW under construction, making them the "fastest way for AI companies to obtain power with the lowest execution risk."

Currently, many Bitcoin mining company valuations remain anchored to mining fundamentals, with extremely low "Enterprise Value/Watt" (EV/Watt) metrics. The report calculates that converting mining facilities to data centers could create equity value of $5 to $8 per watt, significantly higher than these companies' current trading levels. For investors, this potentially represents a significant value mismatch and potential alpha opportunity.

**Pressing Power Bottleneck**

AI's demand for computing power is growing exponentially, but this faces the hard constraint of electricity supply. Morgan Stanley's models show that US data center power demand is projected at 65 GW between 2025-2028. However, current grid capacity for near-term connections stands at only 15 GW, and adding approximately 6 GW of data centers under construction still leaves a massive gap of about 45 GW.

The report analyzes that even considering all innovative measures including natural gas turbine transactions (approximately 15-20 GW), Bloom Energy fuel cells (approximately 5-8 GW), and utilizing existing nuclear power plant schemes (approximately 5-15 GW), and assuming successful execution of all these initiatives, by 2028, US data center developers will still face approximately 5 to 15 GW of power shortage. A recent survey by Schneider Electric confirms this challenge, noting that "power acquisition" has become the primary cause of data center project delays.

**Market-Undervalued "Power Inventory": The Unique Value of Bitcoin Mining Facilities**

Amid the power bottleneck, Bitcoin mining facilities offer a seemingly surprising yet logical solution. Morgan Stanley notes these facilities possess the core assets most valued by AI players: approved grid connections and large-scale power supply capabilities. This allows them to bypass the "large load interconnection" approval process that new data centers typically require, which takes several years.

Data shows US Bitcoin mining companies control approximately 6.3 GW of operational large-scale (100+ MW) sites, another 2.5 GW under construction, and 8.6 GW of development projects with approved grid access permits. The report believes these ready-made power resources hold extremely high value for AI companies, and converting these sites to AI data centers would have construction timelines (approximately 18-24 months) that perfectly align with Bitcoin sites' development-to-power infrastructure completion timeline.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes that "Enterprise Value/Watt" (EV/Watt) is a key metric overlooked by markets for evaluating such companies' value. Many Bitcoin mining companies remain significantly undervalued.

**Economic Value Creation Analysis**

The economic value that can be created by converting Bitcoin mining facilities to HPC data centers is remarkable. Morgan Stanley conducted calculations through a value creation analysis model: assuming a Bitcoin mining company converts a 100 MW site into a "powered shell" data center (excluding chips and servers), then leases it long-term to clients.

Analysis shows that if the tenant is a major cloud service provider (Hyperscaler), the project could create approximately $519 million in equity value, or $5.19 per watt. If the tenant is an emerging cloud service provider (Neocloud), the equity value creation could be even higher, reaching approximately $781 million, or $7.81 per watt. The report notes this value creation potential of approximately $5-8 per watt far exceeds the current trading levels of many Bitcoin mining stocks. Such transaction structures typically use project financing with high leverage while avoiding commercial risks associated with holding chips themselves, making them attractive to all parties.

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