At a July 15 State Council Information Office briefing, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) officials addressed pressing economic concerns including price trends and property market developments. China's consumer price index (CPI) registered a 0.1% year-on-year decline during the first half, with food prices dropping 0.9% and energy costs falling 3.2% – jointly contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease.
NBS Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun characterized the current low-price environment as structurally transitional, attributing it to shifting macroeconomic conditions globally and domestically alongside China's developmental phase. He noted emerging economic drivers remain insufficient to fully counterbalance adjustments in traditional sectors, resulting in ongoing price recalibrations.
Multiple supporting factors are projected to drive moderate price recovery in the latter half of the year. Sheng highlighted three key catalysts: sustained economic expansion fortifying demand fundamentals, the gradual impact of domestic consumption stimulus policies, and anticipated service-price increases during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday period. Recent industry self-regulation initiatives in photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors are additionally expected to positively influence pricing discipline across these domains.
Technical factors likewise favor upward price momentum, as base effects depressing both CPI and producer price index (PPI) readings will progressively diminish through the remainder of 2024.
Property market indicators showed notable improvement, with first-half contraction in new commercial housing sales area narrowing by 15.5 percentage points to 3.5% year-on-year, while sales value declines reduced by 19.5 percentage points to 5.5%. Inventory reduction gained traction as evidenced by a 4.79-million-square-meter decrease in unsold commercial properties at June's end – marking the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.
Price moderation trends emerged across urban centers, with June's year-on-year new home price declines in first-, second- and third-tier cities narrowing by 0.3, 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from May levels. Developers' funding conditions improved significantly, reflected in a 16.4-percentage-point narrowing of capital inflow declines year-on-year.
Sheng acknowledged localized government measures aligned with central directives have yielded observable stabilization effects. While conceding current property sales contractions necessitate intensified policy efforts, he characterized market fluctuations as natural during this transitional bottoming-out phase. Further substantial actions will be implemented to consolidate the emerging recovery trajectory.