Gold prices remained under pressure during Tuesday's Asian trading session, with spot gold (XAU/USD) fluctuating around the $2,330 level, consolidating near its lowest point in nearly three months. The primary factors weighing on the precious metal are a cooling of market risk aversion and renewed expectations for higher US interest rates.

Recent developments in the Middle East have shown signs of a temporary de-escalation. Iran and Israel have agreed to reduce military actions against each other, a shift from the previously escalating regional tensions that had threatened peace talks and prompted calls from the US for restraint. With the immediate conflict risk subsiding, demand for safe-haven assets has notably diminished, eroding a key pillar of support for gold.

However, regional risks have not vanished entirely. While Iran announced an end to its military actions against Israel, its military command simultaneously warned of a stronger response if Israel continues its strikes, including in southern Lebanon. This indicates that significant uncertainty remains in the Middle East, and any new military conflict could quickly reignite market risk aversion.

Despite lingering geopolitical risks, the market's focus is increasingly shifting towards the outlook for US monetary policy. The latest robust US employment data indicates continued resilience in the labor market. This outcome has prompted investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's future policy path, increasing expectations for further monetary tightening.

There is a prevailing market view that a persistently strong job market could sustain elevated wage growth, thereby raising the risk of resurgent inflation. In this context, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates or even implementing further hikes is on the rise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by December has climbed to 43%, a significant increase from around 14% a month ago. This shift reflects a clear adjustment in investor expectations for the future interest rate trajectory.

For gold, rising rate expectations pose a direct challenge. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases when market interest rates rise, often leading capital to flow towards higher-yielding alternatives, thereby diminishing gold's appeal. Consequently, the recent strength in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index has exerted sustained downward pressure on the gold price.

Simultaneously, the market continues to monitor risks to energy supply from the Middle East. Some analysts suggest that a renewed escalation in regional tensions could push international energy prices higher, exacerbating global inflationary pressures and potentially forcing the Fed to maintain a high-interest-rate policy for an extended period. The gold market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and high-rate pressure, with upcoming economic data poised to be a key determinant of its direction.

Market focus this week will center on US inflation data. Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Should these figures exceed market expectations, the probability of further Fed tightening could increase, amplifying downside pressure on gold. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation could alleviate market concerns about rate hikes, offering gold a potential rebound opportunity.

In terms of fund flows, overall market sentiment appears cautious. Some institutional investors are reducing long positions in gold while increasing allocations to the US dollar and fixed-income assets. Ahead of the key economic data releases, the gold market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

From a daily chart perspective, gold prices have been in a consecutive decline, operating within a clear downtrend channel. The price has fallen to its lowest level since late March, indicating that bears still dominate the market. The moving average system is gradually shifting to a bearish alignment, with short-term averages crossing below medium- and long-term ones, reflecting a weakening trend. The MACD indicator continues to operate below the zero line, with its green histogram expanding further, signaling sustained bearish momentum. The RSI indicator has retreated to around 40, not yet in oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside. Key support levels to watch are around $2,300 and $2,250, while significant resistance lies near $2,360 and $2,400.

Observing the 4-hour chart, gold prices continue to be capped by a descending trendline, with limited strength in short-term rebounds. The MACD indicator maintains a bearish crossover structure, though the green histogram has narrowed slightly, hinting at a potential, albeit minor, weakening of bearish force. The RSI indicator is hovering around 45, reflecting cautious market sentiment. A break above the $2,360 resistance zone could pave the way for a further rebound towards the $2,400 level. Conversely, a break below the $2,300 support could lead to a test of $2,250 or lower. Overall, the short-term bias remains bearish, though a technical correction cannot be ruled out before the release of major economic data.

The gold market is currently transitioning from a phase dominated by safe-haven demand to one driven by interest rate expectations. As Middle East tensions show signs of easing, the traditional safe-haven support for gold has weakened, while strong US economic data has reinforced market expectations for the Fed to maintain or even raise interest rates. The upcoming US CPI and PPI data will be critical in determining gold's next directional move. Should inflation exceed expectations, rate hike expectations could intensify, posing further downside risk for gold. If inflationary pressures show clear signs of easing, it could prompt a market reassessment of the monetary policy path, potentially providing a rebound catalyst for gold. In summary, gold faces near-term pressure, though geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties continue to offer potential support for its medium- to long-term trajectory.