In October, China's domestic steel market experienced a downward trend, with a slight rebound at month-end, though the overall trajectory remained weak. Entering November, seasonal factors accelerated demand contraction, reinforcing the bearish fundamentals and sustaining a weak, volatile price trend.

1. **October Steel Price Index Declines Further** According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), the October average for the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) stood at 91.92 points, down 1.26 points (1.35%) month-on-month and 9.10 points (9.01%) year-on-year. - **Long Products Index**: Averaged 92.23 points, down 1.49 points (1.58%) monthly and 13.04 points (12.39%) annually. - **Flat Products Index**: Averaged 91.17 points, down 1.15 points (1.25%) monthly and 6.80 points (6.94%) annually. By end-October, the CSPI closed at 92.34 points, marking a 1.38% monthly drop and a 7.19% annual decline. Year-to-date, the index averaged 93.50 points, down 9.58% from 2024.

2. **Regional and Product-Specific Trends** All six major regions recorded monthly declines, led by Central-South China (-1.72%) and trailed by East China (-0.96%). Key product performances: - **Hot-Rolled Coils**: Fell sharply by ¥63/ton. - **Seamless Pipes**: Edged down ¥25/ton.

3. **Demand-Supply Dynamics** - **Investment Slowdown**: January-October fixed-asset investment dipped 1.7% YoY, dragged by a 14.7% plunge in property development. Infrastructure investment turned negative (-0.1%) for the first time this year. - **Manufacturing Resilience**: Growth slowed to 2.7%, with October PMI contracting to 49.0%. Auto production rose 13.2% YTD but showed deceleration. - **Steel Output vs. Consumption**: Crude steel output fell 3.9% YTD, while apparent consumption dropped 6.5%, exacerbating oversupply.

4. **Global Market Weakness** The CRU global steel price index declined 1.2% monthly to 186.4 points in October, with drops across North America (-1.4%), Europe (-2.0%), and Asia (-0.5%).

5. **Outlook** With high inventories and tepid demand, steel prices face continued pressure. Policy support—including capacity controls and anti-dumping measures—may stabilize the market, but seasonal headwinds and global trade uncertainties persist. Industry self-discipline in production remains critical to balancing supply-demand dynamics.