Abstract

Danaos will report fourth-quarter results on February 09, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, operating profitability, net earnings and EPS, reviews last quarter’s delivery versus guidance, and frames the key swing factors investors are watching into the print.

Market Forecast

- For the current quarter, market projections indicate total revenue of USD 253.00 million, an estimated year-over-year decline of 3.27%, with EBIT projected at USD 127.00 million and EPS at USD 6.46, reflecting an estimated year-over-year EPS contraction of 2.69%. Forecast EBIT implies a year-over-year decline of 11.76%. Year-over-year forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not available; if Danaos maintains a high-60s gross margin consistent with recent levels, profitability should remain solid. - The company’s operations remain concentrated in time-charter and bareboat chartering, which accounted for USD 488.72 million last quarter, while voyage chartering contributed USD 26.74 million. The most promising segment is the time-charter and bareboat chartering business, which drives the majority of revenue and visibility; specific year-over-year segment growth is not provided.

Last Quarter Review

- In the previous quarter, Danaos reported revenue of USD 260.73 million, a gross profit margin of 70.50%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 131.00 million, a net profit margin of 50.11%, and adjusted EPS of USD 6.75; the revenue grew 9.01% year over year, while the adjusted EPS increased 3.85% year over year. - A notable highlight was the company’s ability to preserve industry-leading margins amid a dynamic charter-rate environment, with quarter-on-quarter net profit essentially stable at down 0.19%. - Main business dynamics showed time-charter and bareboat chartering contributing USD 488.72 million and voyage chartering USD 26.74 million on a trailing basis; specific quarterly year-over-year segmentation was not stated, but the mix underscores the charter-led earnings base.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Time-charter and bareboat chartering

The core of Danaos’s near-term earnings power remains multi-year, fixed-rate time charters that underpin cash flow visibility. With forecast revenue at USD 253.00 million and EBIT at USD 127.00 million this quarter, the implied EBIT margin of 50.20% suggests profitability resilience even with a modest revenue dip. Given last quarter’s gross profit margin of 70.50%, any normalization in bunker and operating costs is likely to leave gross margins elevated relative to industry averages. The primary swing within the main business is the roll-off and re-chartering of vessels signed during earlier rate cycles; if renewals occur at lower levels than peak 2024 fixtures, revenue pressure may persist, but existing contracted coverage can mitigate abrupt declines. The quarter’s EPS estimate of USD 6.46 aligns with this framework of stable high margins on slightly lower revenue.

Most promising business: Contracted charter coverage

Within the company’s revenue stack, contracted time-charter coverage offers the clearest avenue for sustained earnings, aided by forward visibility and reduced spot exposure. The time-charter and bareboat chartering segment contributed USD 488.72 million on a trailing basis, emphasizing its outsized role. While year-over-year data by segment is not provided, the strategic emphasis on long-term charters supports steadier cash generation and dampened volatility versus pure voyage exposure. This quarter’s forecast assumes a small year-over-year decline in total revenue of 3.27%, which, combined with high-60s to low-70s gross margins from the last reported quarter, positions the segment to continue delivering solid earnings even if spot market tightness eases. Execution risks center on off-hire days for scheduled dry-dockings and any delays in vessel re-deliveries, which could produce timing effects in revenue recognition.

Stock-price drivers this quarter

Investor focus is likely to center on any update to charter duration and renewal rates, which will shape revenue run-rate into 2026. If management signals renewals at rates near recent benchmarks, the market may view the revenue guide as conservative, supporting an upside path to EPS relative to the USD 6.46 estimate. Conversely, commentary pointing to a faster normalization in charter rates could pressure top-line expectations and compress valuation if the EBIT forecast of USD 127.00 million proves optimistic. Another determinant is capital allocation: incremental disclosures on fleet renewal, potential acquisitions, or returns to shareholders could influence near-term multiples, especially if the company balances growth with maintenance of its high margins. Finally, any shift in operating costs, including crew, maintenance, or dry-docking schedules, will affect gross margin sustainability given the 70.50% level reported last quarter.

Analyst Opinions

There have been limited fresh published views from recognized institutions within the last six months to form a definitive majority; current commentary is mixed and does not coalesce around a single bullish or bearish stance. In the absence of a clear tilt, the dominant analytical thread emphasizes the durability of contract-backed revenue and margin support, while acknowledging the risk that re-chartering at lower rates may nudge revenue down 3.27% year over year this quarter. Analysts who stress contract visibility argue that stable EBIT margins near 50.00% and EPS near USD 6.46 would validate the company’s strategy of prioritizing long-duration coverage. Those focusing on cyclicality caution that the year-over-year EBIT decline of 11.76% in the forecast may foreshadow further normalization if market conditions soften. The balance of these views suggests investors will scrutinize management’s commentary on charter coverage, renewal rates, and cost trajectory to recalibrate expectations for 2026 earnings power.