China Hongqiao (01378) rose more than 4%, climbing 4.32% to HK$36.74 by the time of writing, with a turnover of HK$208 million. On the news front, CMB International believes that, given the persistent global aluminum supply shortage expected through 2026–2027, coupled with the dual tailwinds of rising aluminum prices and falling bauxite costs, it has raised its profit forecast for China Hongqiao. The firm increased its target price from HK$39 to HK$45 and maintained a "Buy" rating.

CMB International noted that China’s primary aluminum capacity utilization rate has already approached the policy cap of 99%, while new capacity additions overseas remain limited. This dynamic is expected to keep the global aluminum market in a deficit, with the average aluminum price projected to rise 15% year-on-year in 2026.

In terms of earnings performance, China Hongqiao’s core net profit for 2025 is forecast to reach RMB 26.262 billion, up 7% year-on-year. Profit growth is expected to accelerate to 34% in 2026, driven mainly by higher aluminum prices. Guosen Securities highlighted that the company is a leading player in the global aluminum industry, with annual production capacity of 19 million tons of alumina and 6.46 million tons of primary aluminum, making it the world’s second-largest aluminum producer.

The company is committed to high dividend payouts. In May 2025, it announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025–2027), stating that when the company is in a mature development stage without major capital expenditure plans, the cash dividend payout ratio should be no less than 80% of distributable profits. This dividend payout ratio is among the highest in the aluminum industry.