Domestic insurance stocks experienced volatile gains. At the time of writing, New China Insurance (NCI) (01336) rose 3.48% to HK$65.4; China Taiping Insurance (CPIC) (02601) increased 3.48% to HK$39.9; Ping An Insurance (PING AN) (02318) climbed 3.03% to HK$73.1; and China Life Insurance (02628) advanced 1.02% to HK$35.54.
The backdrop involves over 50 trillion yuan in massive high-interest time deposits from banks maturing since 2026, making the direction of fund flows a hot topic in the market.
Donghai Securities noted that catalyzed by deposit relocations and boosted by a buoyant equity market enhancing the competitiveness of participating insurance products, the 2026 insurance "Good Start" sales have been exceptionally robust, with leading insurers showing impressive growth in new premium income.
The firm anticipates that, supported by the continuous release of residents' demand for stable wealth management products and the further realization of bancassurance channel productivity, the industry's overall premium scale will maintain a high-growth trend during the "Good Start" period, with leading insurers expected to consistently outpace the industry in premium growth momentum due to their channel and product advantages.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that, focusing on the short term, it expects listed insurers' 2025 performance forecasts to be promising, likely driven primarily by investment-side performance.
Looking at the medium term, the first half of 2026 faces relatively lighter base pressure, and a combination of an active equity market and a thriving liability side could potentially drive performance exceeding expectations.
Taking a long-term view, with the current clear stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly reducing pressure from interest spread losses, the securities firm believes that Price-to-Embedded Value (PEV) valuations may potentially recover towards 1x. Furthermore, resident deposit shifts might lead to strong growth in New Business Value (NBV), potentially driving the PEV valuations of some high-quality leading insurers above 1x.