Oil traders widely expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to approve further production increases in November as the group attempts to regain global crude market share.

According to surveys of traders and analysts, Saudi Arabia and its allies are likely to approve a November production increase comparable to October's planned daily increase of 137,000 barrels. Eight core member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene a video conference on October 5 to make the decision.

OPEC+ has begun a phased restoration of previously suspended crude production of 1.66 million barrels per day, despite widespread industry warnings that this move could lead to market oversupply. Saudi Arabia has rapidly restored its previous supply of 2.2 million barrels per day, withstanding market bearish pressure, resulting in only modest oil price declines.

China's substantial crude purchases for strategic reserves and the incomplete implementation of OPEC+'s announced production increases have provided some support for oil prices. As of Friday, London crude futures traded near $69 per barrel, down approximately 7% year-to-date.

Softer oil prices provide some relief for global consumers and could help support interest rate cuts while putting pressure on Russia to end the Ukraine conflict. Survey results show that among 21 respondents, only three believe OPEC+ will maintain current production levels, with most predicting an increase of 137,000 barrels per day.

However, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman is known for "surprising" moves, having previously accelerated supply restoration through above-expected production increases. Despite facing sanctions and Ukrainian attacks, Russia, as a co-leader of the alliance, largely supports the production increase plan.

Multiple OPEC+ representatives explain that the rapid restoration of supply suspended since 2023 indicates the organization's policy objective has shifted from oil price stabilization to market share competition. Sources reveal that Saudi Arabia hopes to compensate for revenue losses from declining oil prices by increasing production and reclaim market share eroded by competitors like U.S. shale oil in recent years.

HSBC Global Oil & Gas Senior Analyst Kim Fustier stated: "OPEC+ has fully embraced a market share strategy. Unless oil prices experience a significant decline, we doubt they will change their stance."

Through supply liberalization, Saudi Arabia also hopes to demonstrate to the market that most OPEC+ members' actual spare capacity is far lower than commonly perceived, thereby breaking market complacency.

This week, Iraq reached an agreement with the Kurdish region to restart a pipeline that had been closed for over two years. However, oil prices showed muted reaction to this news, as traders generally believe most of the halted crude production has been absorbed by domestic consumption or neighboring countries.