Steady Improvement Marks National Economy in First Seven Months as Emerging Drivers Strengthen and Investment in New Frontiers Expands

Deep News
08/18

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th shows that from January to July this year, the national economy maintained overall stability, continuing the trend of shifting toward new drivers and structural improvement. Notably, emerging sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing contributed 50.9% to the growth of industrial output above designated size, with artificial intelligence in particular serving as an accelerator for the transition between old and new growth drivers, empowering a wide range of industries.

As the potential of new drivers is unleashed, investment in new frontiers is also expanding and improving in quality. Currently, China's economic operations are undergoing many positive and profound changes, with the development model shifting from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth. "With the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, new forms of the intelligent economy continue to emerge, and the supporting role of new driver growth in economic development will continue to strengthen," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy.

Economic operations remain fundamentally stable. From January to July, total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.0% and goods retail sales rising by 1.1%. Total imports and exports of goods grew by 17.3% year-on-year, the RMB exchange rate edged up steadily, and foreign exchange reserves remained above $3.4 trillion. The surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2%, and consumer prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year. Fu Linghui stated that overall, the stability and resilience of economic operations form a solid foundation for China's stable development. As a super-large economy, China relies on its complete industrial system and domestic market advantages, possessing broad room for maneuver and strong resilience.

New drivers are gaining momentum and providing strong support. In the first seven months of this year, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with new drivers further strengthening their contribution to the industrial economy. "Preliminary calculations show that from January to July, emerging sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing contributed around 50% to the growth of industrial value-added above designated size, up approximately 3 percentage points from the first half of the year," Fu Linghui noted. From the production side, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.8%, outpacing the overall industrial growth above designated size by 8.5 percentage points. By product category, output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots increased by 52.3%, 40.2%, and 28.5% year-on-year, respectively.

Alongside the release of new driver potential, investment in new frontiers is also expanding and upgrading. The surge in computing power demand has driven substantial increases in investment across the entire industrial chain. In the first seven months of this year, investment in the electronic circuit manufacturing, electronic specialty materials manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing sectors rose by 57.7%, 9.4%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively. The growth of the new energy vehicle market drove investment in the lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector up by 23%, while investment in aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing grew by 12.3%, with the commercialization process of the low-altitude economy steadily accelerating.

Artificial intelligence has become an accelerator for the transformation between old and new growth drivers, empowering all industries. With the improvement of the industrial chain, output of products such as memory chips and industrial robots has increased rapidly. Data shows that in July, AI-driven output of sensors, memory chips, electronic components, and optical fibers grew by 35.3%, 30.2%, 23.4%, and 21.1% respectively, while output of industrial robots and robot reducers increased by 30.2% and 22.7% respectively. On the consumption side, from January to July, retail sales of wearable smart devices above designated size more than doubled, and a range of immersive and interactive consumption scenarios such as AI-guided tours and virtual fitting rooms are accelerating their rollout, continuously unlocking new consumption potential.

"The characteristics of artificial intelligence mean that China has significant development potential in this field," said Miao Yanliang, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation. The broader the industrial impact, the more prominent the value of China's super-large market and rich application scenarios; the deeper the requirement for technological integration, the easier it is to leverage the advantages of China's complete industrial system and engineering capabilities; the faster the iteration speed required, the more important the vast user base is for developers to refine their products.

According to Zhu Feng, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, the production side remains the most resilient part of the economy at present. China's new quality productive forces are forming new growth pillars, with industrial production, high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and electronics and AI hardware-related industrial chains all benefiting from industrial upgrading and the global AI capital expenditure cycle. However, he also cautioned that continuously improving domestic demand remains critical, and the focus should be on strengthening the ability to "absorb output."

"Industrial transformation and upgrading, as well as the transition between old and new growth drivers, is not a synchronized process. The pace of development inevitably varies in sequence and speed. We must recognize both the positive aspect of new drivers accelerating growth and the economy moving toward new and better directions, while also facing the reality that the transition between old and new growth momentum still requires time and that some sectors face short-term difficulties," said Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy. He added that China will continue to promote high-quality development, coordinate the advancement of traditional industry upgrading, emerging industry expansion, and future industry cultivation, and promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers.

Looking ahead, Fu Linghui emphasized that despite various risks and challenges, the "stable" keynote of China's economy remains unchanged. With new drivers growing stronger, reform and opening-up deepening, and macro policies gaining effectiveness, the economy is expected to maintain its overall stable, new, and better development trajectory, providing strong support for achieving the annual economic growth target. Zhu Feng expressed confidence in China achieving its full-year goals, expecting the economy to show "controllable recovery" in the second half of the year, with quarter-on-quarter momentum potentially improving in the third and fourth quarters. At present, there remains a foundation for achieving the annual economic targets, but macro policies need timely support and precise implementation, with further reinforcement if necessary.

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