Data released on March 31 by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing showed that in March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and the Composite PMI Output Index all returned to expansion territory. The readings were 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, rising by 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in China's economic prosperity level.
The manufacturing PMI rose into expansion territory, with both production and demand expanding simultaneously. Data showed that in March, as enterprises accelerated work resumption after the Spring Festival holiday, market activity increased, and the manufacturing PMI reached 50.4%, returning to the expansion zone. Both the production index and the new orders index entered expansion territory, registering 51.4% and 51.6%, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month, respectively. This indicates accelerated production activities among manufacturing firms and a significant improvement in market demand.
By sector, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and non-staple food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were both above 55.0%, indicating rapid release of output and demand for related enterprises. In contrast, the two indices for industries such as textile, apparel, and apparel, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products remained below the critical point, suggesting weaker market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, corporate purchasing willingness strengthened, with the purchasing quantity index at 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Price indices saw a significant rebound. Data indicated that, influenced by factors such as recent sustained price increases for some bulk commodities and accelerated corporate purchasing activities, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index stood at 63.9% and 55.4%, rising by 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points month-on-month, respectively. This reflects a clear rebound in the overall price level of the manufacturing market.
The simultaneous recovery in manufacturing market supply and demand and the linked rise in market prices demonstrate that the economic recovery possesses good coordination, and the foundation for improvement has been somewhat consolidated. The production and business activity expectation index was 53.4% in March, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding recent market development.
By industry, the production and business activity expectation indices for specialized equipment, automobiles, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and other industries were located in the high prosperity range above 56.0%, showing greater optimism among related enterprises about future industry development.
The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1% in March, up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating an improvement in non-manufacturing prosperity. The service industry business activity index was 50.2%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
By sector, the business activity indices for industries including railway transport, telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all in the high prosperity range above 55.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume. The service industry business activity expectation index was 54.8%, continuing to operate at a high level, suggesting service enterprises maintain optimism about recent market development.
Concurrently, investment activities related to infrastructure construction commenced noticeably. As construction projects gradually resumed work across regions after the holiday, the construction business activity index was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month. The construction business activity expectation index was 50.5%, above the critical point, indicating that construction enterprises maintain confidence in future industry development.
While prosperity levels for traditional housing construction-related activities remain relatively low, the prosperity level for construction activities related to infrastructure investment has improved significantly. Demand for infrastructure related to key areas such as various networks, comprehensive transportation facilities, consumption, low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence integration, and education and healthcare is expected to be continuously released, laying the foundation for fully leveraging infrastructure investment's role in stabilizing growth.
The composite PMI output index was 50.5% in March, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point. This indicates that the overall prosperity level of Chinese enterprise production and business operations is trending positively.