Guotai Haitong Securities unveiled a research report highlighting the burgeoning opportunities in the global two-wheeler sector. Motorcycles dominate as essential transport in India and Southeast Asia, while e-bikes gain immense popularity across Europe and Japan. These vehicles excel for short-distance travel, prized for their convenience and speed. Currently, the overseas electric two-wheeler market remains nascent, prompting brands to aggressively expand. Leading Chinese players, YADEA (01585) and Aima Technology Group Co., Ltd. (603529.SH), are charging ahead with steady overseas factory setups and channel developments. Leveraging early strategic moves, swift tactical adjustments, efficient supply chains, and deep channel expertise, these giants are poised to navigate the vast potential of international two-wheeler markets.
The "oil-to-electricity" transition gains momentum, fueled by carbon neutrality policies that favor electric vehicle adoption. Fuel-powered motorcycles, notorious for high emissions and environmental harm, face rising operational costs amid soaring oil prices versus cheaper electricity. This shift drives the replacement of traditional models with cleaner electric alternatives. Southeast Asia, a motorcycle hub, witnesses growing policy support: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam are phasing out motorcycles; Thailand imposes CO2-based taxes since 2020; Singapore leads with a 2040 fossil-fuel vehicle phase-out. Vietnam's pledge for net-zero emissions by 2050, reinforced at COP26, underscores accelerating electric infrastructure plans.
Electric two-wheelers offer compelling advantages: significantly lower carbon footprints, reduced noise, diverse energy sources, higher efficiency, and lower purchase and maintenance costs. Premium models deliver superior smart features. Though performance gaps with fuel motorcycles persist in extreme conditions, urban riding experiences are increasingly comparable. High component overlap with electric vehicles benefits the sector; rapid EV industry growth promises maturing supply chains, advancing technologies, and falling battery costs, which will trickle down to electric two-wheelers.
Reflecting on China's electric two-wheeler boom post-motorcycle bans, India and Southeast Asia present fertile ground for similar "oil-to-electric" transitions. These regions echo China's 2000-2010 era: urban expansion outpaces road infrastructure, making electric two-wheelers ideal for short commutes amid restrictive policies. Affordability is key—average prices for motorcycles and e-bikes in Southeast Asia hover around $4,010 and $1,310, starkly below $54,000 for electric cars, aligning better with local incomes.
China's export prowess in bicycles and motorcycles, with export shares hitting 89% for bikes and up to 54% for motorcycles, sets a precedent. Now, with the domestic electric two-wheeler market mature, exports are nascent but promising; only 5.2% of 2020 shipments went overseas, leaving ample room for growth. Top firms like YADEA and Aima Technology, fortified by robust supply chains and channel barriers, are well-positioned to capture global demand. However, risks loom, including geopolitical tensions and local policy uncertainties.