Abstract

Lowe's Companies, Inc. will report fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on November 18, 2026 Pre-Mkt; this preview compiles last quarter’s performance, consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, and EPS, and synthesizes recent institutional commentary on the setup into earnings.

Market Forecast

Based on the most recent company-facing and market data, the fiscal third quarter is projected to deliver revenue of 22.42 billion US dollars, up 7.70% year over year, with estimated EBIT of 2.56 billion US dollars, forecast adjusted EPS of 2.88 (down 2.89% year over year), and model-implied net profitability broadly stable; gross margin is expected to be supported by disciplined pricing and mix. The main business is anticipated to benefit from steadier seasonal categories and pro customer demand, while big-ticket discretionary remains a swing factor; the most promising segment is Seasonal Products at 7.95 billion US dollars last quarter, where stabilization in outdoor project demand could yield above-company growth if weather and traffic trends cooperate.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Lowe's Companies, Inc. reported revenue of 25.96 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 32.74%, net profit attributable to common shareholders of 2.40 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 9.24%, and adjusted EPS of 4.40, with year-over-year growth of 1.62% for EPS and 8.34% for revenue. Operating execution remained resilient with cost control and shrink mitigation helping to support margins despite soft categories. Main business highlights included Seasonal Products revenue of 7.95 billion US dollars, Home Decor at 7.82 billion US dollars, and Building Maintenance at 7.55 billion US dollars, alongside 1.94 billion US dollars from other net sales and 0.69 billion US dollars from other activities.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Core home improvement retail

The core business this quarter centers on residential repair-and-remodel demand, which is closely tied to transaction volumes in existing homes, project backlogs from earlier deferrals, and hurricane-related rebuild in certain markets. Consensus models imply high-single-digit revenue growth from easier comparisons and a modest improvement in traffic, while average ticket is expected to be mixed as big-ticket discretionary categories remain uneven. Promotion intensity is likely to increase into holiday, but pricing discipline and private-label attachment can help preserve gross margin dollars even if basis points move modestly.

Within categories, maintenance-and-repair and smaller DIY projects should remain comparatively steady, supported by consumables, tools, and hardware. Seasonal categories typically account for a meaningful revenue mix into the fall and early winter merchandising windows; sell-through of heaters, outdoor power equipment, and holiday décor will influence both top-line cadence and margin via clearance exposure. Pro customer engagement remains a critical swing variable: better credit utilization, job-lot sizing, and delivery reliability can lift share of wallet, and management’s investments in fulfillment, inventory availability, and pro-focused services are designed to sustain that momentum.

Merchandise margin drivers this quarter include improved mix toward project essentials, selective vendor cost relief, and reduced shrink from store execution initiatives. Offsetting these positives, wage and logistics cost normalizing from prior year benefits, together with competitive price investment, could dilute some operating leverage. The EBIT framework in consensus (about 2.56 billion US dollars) appears to allow for holiday promotions without sacrificing core profitability targets.

Most promising business: Seasonal Products

Seasonal Products generated 7.95 billion US dollars last quarter, the largest revenue contributor among disclosed categories. This quarter’s outcome will be driven by sell-through in holiday décor, lighting, and seasonal power equipment, which benefit from planned merchandising resets and expanded omnichannel capabilities. Weather normalization versus last year can unlock demand recovery in outdoor categories, while inventory positioning appears tighter, which reduces markdown risk and supports gross margin.

Holiday timing and e-commerce mix are key. Faster delivery on bulky items, broader same-day or next-day coverage, and improved online discovery can raise attachment of accessories, driving tickets with favorable margin mix. If traffic holds and clearance risk remains contained, Seasonal Products can outgrow the enterprise rate even if big-ticket discretionary remains choppy. Conversely, an extended warm spell or late holiday shopping pattern could defer purchases and force incremental promotions, a scenario partially contemplated in consensus.

Vendor collaboration is another advantage for this category. Joint planning on exclusives and private-brand depth provides line-of-sight to stable unit economics. This affords flexibility to calibrate promotions while preserving contribution margin, which is reflected in the consensus expectation for gross margin stability despite increased holiday activity.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Investors will focus on three levers: comp trajectory, margin durability, and capital returns. Comparable sales inflection hinges on traffic recovery in DIY and steadier Pro activity; even modest positive comps against easier comparisons could validate the 7.70% revenue growth forecast. Gross margin commentary will be scrutinized for signs that shrink benefits and product mix can offset seasonal promotions; small deviations in gross margin can translate into outsized EPS impacts given the operating leverage at this scale.

Operating expense control remains a focal point. Store labor optimization, automation in distribution, and delivery efficiency can support SG&A leverage even in a promotional environment. Any reiteration of full-year capital return intentions—share repurchases and dividends—tends to underpin valuation support into year-end; the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS strength provides a buffer for sustaining buyback cadence, although management’s guidance tone will be important.

Macro sensitivity adds a final layer. Mortgage rate moves, housing turnover indicators, and consumer confidence will influence big-ticket categories and project intent. A constructive macro update could allow the stock to respond positively even if headline EPS is close to consensus, whereas guarded commentary on discretionary categories or elevated promotions could pressure the multiple.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary skews bullish, emphasizing stabilizing comps, resilient margins, and support from capital returns, with fewer houses flagging material downside to consensus. Several well-followed analysts highlight that year-over-year revenue growth expectations near 7.70% appear achievable given easier compares and improved seasonal sell-through, while the EPS forecast embeds conservative holiday promotion assumptions. Notably, multiple institutions point to sequential improvement in category breadth and Pro demand as incremental positives for traffic and mix.

One prominent large-cap retail research team characterizes the setup as “constructively balanced,” citing early reads on seasonal traffic and inventory positioning that reduce the risk of heavy clearance. Another widely followed brokerage notes that the EBIT consensus near 2.56 billion US dollars implies only modest margin pressure relative to last quarter’s level, leaving room for upside if shrink and mix benefits extend. A U.S. money-center bank’s retail analyst underscores the support from buybacks, which have historically cushioned EPS against moderate sales variability.

In summary, the prevailing view from recent analyst notes is bullish. The case centers on achievable comps, disciplined promotion strategy, and ongoing cost efficiencies, which together can sustain gross margin near last quarter’s level while delivering EPS around 2.88 with potential for a small beat if holiday sell-through trends hold. Bears focus on big-ticket softness and macro uncertainty, but their arguments appear less dominant in the recent research flow, leaving the majority expectation tilted to an in-line to modestly better print with constructive guidance framing into the final quarter of the fiscal year.