Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) surged 5.46% during intraday trading on Thursday, marking a significant rally for the memory-focused exchange-traded fund.

The sharp gain was driven by dramatically revised price forecasts for memory chips. Industry research firm TrendForce raised its DRAM contract price increase forecast from 55-60% to 90-95% quarter-over-quarter, which would represent a near-doubling and a fifteen-year record. NAND flash price forecasts were similarly upgraded from 33-38% to 55-60%, also setting a 15-year high.

The rally reflects a severe structural supply-demand imbalance in the memory market. Manufacturers have allocated approximately 80% of their advanced production capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-end DDR5 chips, severely compressing the supply of standard DRAM. Manufacturer inventories have dwindled to just 3-4 weeks, far below the industry's 8-12 week safety standard. Furthermore, AI servers require 8 to 10 times more DRAM per unit than traditional servers, while major cloud providers have locked in multi-year supply agreements, creating a persistent shortage with no new significant production capacity expected for 18-24 months.