European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher stated that the ECB must avoid instinctive policy reactions triggered by the Middle East conflict.

"It is necessary for us to clearly communicate that we will not tolerate inflation developments that deviate from our mandate," he said in an interview on Friday. "However, there is also no need to react in advance to situations that may not materialize."

The Austrian central bank governor is attending the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington. His comments came as Iran announced it would open the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, increasing the possibility of an agreement to end broader regional hostilities.

"Uncertainty remains high—it's good to see positive signals, but we don't know if they will last," Kocher remarked. "We need to keep an open mind before the meeting, even as we enter the room."

The ECB's next interest rate decision will be made in two weeks, although policymakers are leaning toward maintaining the current stance at the April 29–30 meeting while awaiting clearer signals.

"Even if the strait fully reopens, it will take time to return to more normal conditions," Kocher noted. "Some friction will persist, as certain energy production and transportation facilities have already been damaged."

The central bank governor, often viewed as one of the more hawkish members of the Governing Council, emphasized, "We may see some improvements now, but the shock to the economy has already occurred—this means our baseline scenario is effectively the most optimistic one."

"We have already observed some second-round effects, such as rising airfare prices," he added. "But these are highly energy-dependent. What matters is developments beyond energy. There are sporadic signs of second-round effects, but they are not yet widespread."

He also stressed that medium-term inflation expectations remain fairly well anchored.