On May 11th, the international gold market showed signs of stabilization and recovery. After a two-week correction, spot gold prices have reclaimed ground above $4,700 per ounce. On Friday, gold prices rose approximately 0.65% to around $4,716, while silver also strengthened, gaining over 2%. Analysis indicates that gold's return above the $4,700 level reflects a temporary resurgence of bullish sentiment, with market panic from the previous correction gradually subsiding. The support for this rebound is seen as a confluence of macro factors and institutional allocation demand, with the long-term investment rationale for precious metals as a cross-cycle asset remaining intact.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains stable within the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Elevated energy prices driven by Middle Eastern conflicts are making it difficult for inflation pressures to recede quickly, leading to a significant cooling of market expectations for rate cuts within the year. It is assessed that the divergent views within the Fed and the uncertain policy path make the timing of rate cuts difficult to confirm, but the long-term downtrend in real interest rates has not fundamentally changed. The analysis suggests that central bank reserve diversification, the evolution of the dollar system, and safe-haven demand constitute the core logic for a higher gold price floor. Institutional clients have reportedly increased their allocation efforts near the lower bounds of the adjusted trading range.

On the technical front, after breaking through the resistance of short-term moving averages, gold's daily chart shows a renewed bullish alignment, with MACD momentum turning positive and the KDJ indicator rising significantly from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Market observers also note that global central bank gold purchases continue unabated, Asian physical gold demand remains robust, and marginal changes in ETF holdings, physical demand from wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and the COMEX gold futures delivery ratio serve as key windows for gauging genuine capital flows. The structure of gold option open interest, the movement of the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks are also considered auxiliary indicators for observing genuine capital sentiment and shifts in market risk appetite. Cross-verification of these multi-dimensional signals is seen as helpful in improving judgment accuracy.

The outlook suggests that gold prices may experience consolidation within a range of $4,600 to $4,900 per ounce in the short term, with room for further upside in the medium to long term. It is emphasized that investors should fully understand the attributes of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, monitor key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. Dollar Index, oil price trends, and global risk sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, and instead adopt a phased allocation strategy based on their individual risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation window with a steady approach.