Late-night Selloff: Major Shifts in Iran's Military Leadership, Trump's Latest Remarks, Russian Ballistic Missile Strikes, Oil Prices Surge

Deep News
08/11

Stocks experienced a sharp decline late in the trading session. Let's start with the latest key developments.

Iran's Supreme Leader has announced several new appointments, restructuring the leadership of the country's armed forces. According to reports from China's state broadcaster CCTV, on the 10th local time, Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, made six new personnel appointments within the Iranian armed forces. These include the appointment of Air Force Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi as the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and the promotion of Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi to Major General, who has been appointed as the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Additionally, Brigadier General Kioumars Heydari has been appointed as the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Major General Mostafa Izadi as the Deputy Commander of the IRGC, Brigadier General Ali Azmaei as the Commander of the IRGC Navy, and Hossein Taieb as the head of the Basij militia organization.

Trump stated that the US military has "100% control" of the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV reports, on August 10, local time, US President Donald Trump announced that the US has completed mine-clearing operations across the entire Strait of Hormuz, and that the US Navy now has "100%" control over this critical waterway. Trump also claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is now open, and while Iran occasionally still lays mines, the US military will clear them. Furthermore, Trump reiterated his intention to seek compensation from Iran, following Tehran's demand for war reparations from the United States—a statement consistent with his social media posts from earlier in the day. Trump also added, "We still have the ability to escalate the situation."

Kyiv experienced sustained and powerful explosions. According to CCTV reports, in the early hours of August 11, local time, the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv was hit by a series of strong, continuous explosions. Mayor Vitali Klitschko stated on social media that the Russian military was launching a ballistic missile attack on the city.

US stock market optical communication sector plunged as international oil prices surged. On the evening of the 10th, the three major US stock indexes fell. The Nasdaq 100 Index and AI hardware stocks dropped sharply, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining by about 2%. By the close, all three major indexes ended lower: the Dow Jones fell 0.13%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.32%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.06%. The optical communication sector experienced a significant selloff, with Coherent falling over 14% and Lumentum dropping more than 8%. The memory storage sector showed mixed results, with SanDisk rising over 2%, while SK Hynix and Seagate Technology each fell more than 1%. In commodities, international oil prices surged. WTI crude oil futures rose 5.1% to $82.13 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased 5% to $87.72 per barrel. According to data from the US Department of Energy, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 6.1 million barrels in August, bringing inventory down to 298.7 million barrels—the lowest level since 1983.

Analysts believe gold and silver prices have already reached a cyclical bottom. This Monday, precious metal prices showed strength, with international gold prices approaching their mid-June highs. Domestic futures for gold and silver both rose by more than 2%, signaling a marked recovery in bullish sentiment. "A confluence of multiple positive factors is driving the rise in gold and silver prices recently," said Bai Suna, chief analyst of precious metals at Guotou Futures. She noted that the weakening of both geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds has laid the foundation for a rebound in precious metal prices. On one hand, signs of potential talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz have led to a retreat in oil prices, easing upward pressure on US inflation and reducing the market impact of geopolitical conflicts. On the other hand, weak US employment data for July—including Nonfarm Payrolls and ADP figures—which fell significantly short of expectations, along with cooling expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, have pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields lower, alleviating valuation pressure on precious metals. "Market bullish sentiment has clearly recovered. Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of 23 tons in July, ending two consecutive months of outflows. At the same time, central bank gold purchases have accelerated. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings by 19.91 tons in July, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases, with a cumulative purchase of about 60 tons this year. The Bank of Korea has also resumed gold purchases for the first time in 13 years. The long-term support from central bank buying is becoming increasingly solid," Bai Suna added.

Ye Qianning, an analyst at GF Futures, believes that the market has now entered a tug-of-war period, making a sustained one-sided rally unlikely. From a technical perspective, after a prolonged period of adjustment, gold prices have successfully bottomed out and rebounded, holding above the 50-day moving average and breaking through prior resistance levels. However, momentum indicators in the precious metals market are now approaching overbought territory, and bullish momentum has weakened. Without new capital inflows, the market could face a concentrated profit-taking pullback. "In the short term, the market's core focus will be on the US July CPI data," Ye Qianning said. She pointed out that while expectations for further rate hikes have declined, inflation data remains the key metric for the Fed's next steps. If inflation data deviates significantly from expectations, market sentiment could shift rapidly. The US economy is "weak but not collapsing," and the Fed's hawkish stance has not been fully reversed, meaning multiple uncertainties will continue to fuel short-term volatility in precious metals. Additionally, the strong capital absorption effect from the booming AI investment trend will continue to limit the upside potential for gold and silver prices.

Looking ahead, analysts surveyed generally believe that the pattern of short-term volatility combined with a medium-to-long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains unchanged. Bai Suna stated that the logic for a medium-to-long-term rise in the price center of gold and silver has not changed. As US inflation gradually declines, macroeconomic headwinds continue to weaken, the upside for real US Treasury yields remains limited, and the global de-dollarization process progresses, the "bull market" for gold will persist. Overall, gold and silver prices are currently at a cyclical bottom, and market volatility is high. It is recommended that investors closely monitor three core variables: geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy. Investors should avoid blindly chasing highs and ensure proper risk management through position control.

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10