The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that even if the conflict with Iran is resolved this week, the world will still face an oil shortage this year. This is the latest major economic institution to issue a warning, highlighting the severe and potentially far-reaching consequences of the conflict.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist of the IMF, stated in an interview on Tuesday with CNN's "Quest Means Business": "Even if all hostilities were to cease tonight and we begin reopening the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow... we would still face an oil shortfall for the remainder of the year."

In its latest oil market report released on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, calling it the "largest supply disruption in history."

Although the IEA did not forecast an oil shortage for this year, it significantly lowered its global oil supply outlook. Its latest projections show the gap between global oil supply and demand is now just 441,000 barrels per day, a sharp reduction from the 2.4 million barrels per day figure in its March report.

These figures underscore the dramatic shift the conflict has caused for global energy markets and the broader economic outlook. The IMF stated that prior to the outbreak of the conflict, the global economy was performing better than expected, and growth projections for this year were poised to be revised upwards.

Gourinchas said the global economy had been "gaining momentum," driven primarily by reduced uncertainty around US tariff policies and an "investment boom" in artificial intelligence.

However, after the conflict began, he wrote in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, "the global outlook suddenly turned bleak."

He added that the conflict could still trigger an unprecedented global "energy crisis."

The outlook is not optimistic.

The IMF now projects global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January forecast. The institution stated this minor adjustment is based on the assumption that the conflict will be "relatively short-lived." Global inflation is also expected to rise to 4.4% this year.

Furthermore, the IMF outlined two scenarios where the conflict persists for a longer duration. In the more severe scenario—where oil and gas prices surge 100%-200% above January levels and remain there until 2027—global economic growth would be just 2% this year.

The IMF said this would be equivalent to the "dangerous brink of a global recession" (often defined as growth below 2%). Since 1980, the global economy has experienced such low growth only on four occasions.

The IMF's projections are among the latest in a wave of warnings. A growing number of economists and institutions, including the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations, are cautioning about the economic costs of a prolonged Iran conflict.

These warnings paint an increasingly grave picture of the consequences of the war initiated by the US and Israel, with effects even reaching friendly nations or allies, who now face prospects of economic turmoil.

Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, severing approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply, along with significant quantities of other commodities like natural gas, helium, and fertilizers. Some countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, are beginning to experience fuel shortages, and prices for petroleum products are climbing.

On Wednesday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the global economy is facing a "very dangerous moment" due to the Middle East war.

"Australia is better placed and better prepared than many other countries, but we are not immune from the impact of this major economic shock," he told reporters.

The Australian government expects inflation to rise and economic growth to slow this year. "Australians did not choose this Middle East war, but they are paying a heavy price for it," Chalmers said.

To alleviate the economic pressure on consumers from soaring fuel prices, Australia has halved its petrol and diesel taxes for a period of three months.

Chalmers is scheduled to travel to Washington this week for G20 finance ministers' meetings, as well as discussions with the IMF and the World Bank. He stated that during these talks, he would join other officials in calling for an end to the war.

"The sooner this war ends from an economic perspective, the better," he said, adding that its consequences "will linger for some time."