Overseas open-source GPT is progressively integrating into the e-commerce sector, enabling closed-loop conversion from user intent to transaction and markedly shortening the user decision-making journey. Currently, ChatGPT has partnered with retailers such as Etsy, Shopify, Walmart, and Target to pilot AI agent functionalities including direct payment, scenario-based recommendations, and local fulfillment services. As the user base of general large models expands, monetizing e-commerce intent has emerged as a crucial commercial avenue. Additionally, AI is empowering small and medium-sized merchants as well as platforms to cut costs and boost efficiency. The commercial value of Agent traffic entrances is beginning to surface, promising to reshape the industry chain's traffic and monetization ecosystem, with related industrial investment opportunities warranting attention.

Key views from China Merchants Securities are as follows: Overseas open-source GPT is gradually接入电商, driving e-commerce's shift from "self-service search" to "intelligent agency." Open protocol routes represented by OpenAI have achieved the formulation of ACP standards through the Instant Checkout feature, enabling closed-loop conversion from intent to transaction and significantly shortening the user decision path. At present, ChatGPT has collaborated with retailers like Etsy, Shopify, Walmart, and Target to test AI agent functions such as direct payment, scenario-based recommendations, and local fulfillment services. For traditional retail giants including Etsy, Shopify, Walmart, and Target, this serves as a new online traffic入口. According to Similarweb data, approximately 15% of Walmart's total referral traffic in September originated from ChatGPT, a notable increase from 9.5% in August. Target has innovatively integrated fresh produce, local inventory, and DriveUp fulfillment into a closed loop, delivering a personalized, one-stop shopping experience.

Faced with the challenges posed by the open-source protocol model to traffic and ecology, Amazon has opted for a closed-source, self-developed model named Rufus to gain control over platform traffic and data. Rufus focuses on personalized memory, scenario recognition, and multimodal search, capable of deeply customizing recommendations based on users' shopping history, proactively executing complex requests, and providing core functions like intelligent historical price tracking and price drop alerts. In 2025, Rufus saw a 140% year-on-year growth in monthly active users and a 210% surge in interaction volume, effectively enhancing user conversion rates. To counter threats from external AI agent "crawlers" or "automatic price comparison" to its traffic and business ecosystem, Amazon has imposed stringent legal constraints on AI agent behaviors to protect its advertising and front-end traffic systems. Simultaneously, Amazon's self-developed AI chips, Trainium and Inferentia, provide hardware computing power support for Rufus, enabling large-scale real-time inference applications and effectively reducing the operational costs of AI services.

Alibaba's "Qianwen" project, centered on the Qwen large model system, has developed the C-end intelligent assistant "Qianwen APP," facilitating the implementation of full-scenario AI shopping. Doubao has接入抖音商城, initiating a transaction closed loop. Qianwen APP surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week of launch, quickly ranking among the top in China's APP Store, with outstanding performance in AI model capabilities, user activity, and ecological integration. The platform plans to integrate core services such as Gaode, Ele.me, and Fliggy, achieving efficient cross-scenario collaboration in local life and travel through a unified AI entrance. The Qwen3 basic model boasts world-leading performance, strengthening the competitive edge of Alibaba's ecosystem in AI+ content innovation and precise traffic placement. Doubao completed a significant functional upgrade in October 2025, officially integrating with Douyin Mall. When users pose consumption-related questions, Doubao now directly recommends specific products instead of being limited to text suggestions.

AI e-commerce is accelerating the remolding of the e-commerce industry chain as well as traffic distribution and monetization models, suggesting attention to investment opportunities in related enterprises. New-generation AI consumer Agents (such as "Smzdm.com (300785.SZ) - Zhang Dama") are continuously iterating, with links like price comparison, recommendation, and order placement expediting the closed loop. Upstream and downstream SaaS and data service companies (e.g., Guangyun Technology) are accelerating AI product布局, deeply integrating mainstream large models like Tongyi Qianwen to achieve full-process intelligence in shopping guidance, customer service, and operations. Other companies include Taobao ecosystem firms such as Ruoyuchen (003010.SZ), Qingmu Technology (301110.SZ), Yiwanyi Chuang (300792.SZ), and Baozun E-Commerce-W (09991); marketing agencies like Yidian Tianxia (301171.SZ) and Blue Cursor (300058.SZ); SaaS companies such as WEIMOB INC (02013) and YOUZAN (08083); and自有品牌 companies like EAST BUY (01797).

Risk factors include AI progress falling short of expectations, regulatory risks, and demand underperformance.