Citigroup Lowers ALI HEALTH Target Price to HK$8, Maintains Long-Term Positive Outlook

Stock News
05/19

Citigroup has issued a research report stating that ALI HEALTH (00241) management has provided conservative guidance for profit growth in the fiscal year ending March 2027, indicating the company's intention to reinvest incremental operating profits into innovative drugs and the "Hydrogen Ion" application rather than retaining them for short-term earnings. The firm believes ALI HEALTH is strategically transitioning from a pharmaceutical e-commerce platform to a fully integrated "full-stack healthcare" operator, with medical artificial intelligence serving as a future structural growth engine. Citigroup has lowered its target price for ALI HEALTH from HK$9 to HK$8 while maintaining a "Buy/High Risk" rating. It remains long-term optimistic on ALI HEALTH and considers it a top pick. Management plans to invest 200 to 300 million renminbi annually into the "Hydrogen Ion" app, with the short-term priority being to build clinical trust rather than monetization. The goal is to reach 2 million active physician users within three years and achieve operational breakeven. The platform is based on Alibaba Cloud's "Tongyi Qianwen" large model and has been trained on 500 billion medical data tokens. Its differentiating advantage lies in its focus on localized clinical applications in China. The firm has slightly adjusted revenue forecasts and reduced earnings per share estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by 8% and 11%, respectively, to reflect increased sales and research and development costs related to innovative drugs. Citigroup forecasts that ALI HEALTH's adjusted net profit for fiscal year 2027 will range between 1.9 and 2.3 billion renminbi, implying a year-on-year change ranging from a 17% decline to flat growth.

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