Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that it has raised net profit forecasts for CHINA MER PORT (00144) and COSCO SHIP PORT (01199) by 2% to 6% for 2025 to 2027. The firm is bullish on COSCO SHIP PORT due to strong performance at its European terminals and improved performance at Qiankai Port, expecting a dividend yield of 5% in 2025. The target price has been raised from HK$5.3 to HK$6.0, with a "Buy" rating. CHINA MER PORT's target price has been increased from HK$13.1 to HK$14.2, with a "Neutral" rating.
The firm noted that despite the backdrop of US tariff increases and trade uncertainties, mainland China's port container throughput still grew 7% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Looking ahead, the firm forecasts year-on-year growth of 4.6%, 2.7%, and 2.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, implying that growth will slow to 2% in the second half of 2025.
Regarding pricing, CHINA MER PORT targets a 2% price increase in 2026 contract negotiations, while other operators are expected to refrain from further price increases beyond inflation adjustments. Both CHINA MER PORT and COSCO SHIP PORT have expressed optimism about contract price growth at their overseas terminals due to faster throughput growth and rising costs.