Caitong Securities published a research report initiating coverage of TRIP.COM-S (09961) with a "Buy" rating, forecasting the company's revenue for 2025-2027 at RMB 62.0/71.2/80.9 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 19.4/22.4/25.6 billion respectively. As the leading OTA (Online Travel Agency) player in China, the company has established deep competitive moats in supply chain, user mindshare, and global resource integration. The recovery of China's domestic tourism market provides stable support for the company's domestic business growth, while inbound/outbound and international business serve as core drivers for medium to long-term performance growth.
The report highlights that the company's inbound/outbound and international business have become important growth engines with broad expansion potential. The outbound tourism market is accelerating its recovery, visa-free policies are driving significant growth in inbound tourism, and cross-border travel has become a key development area for the company, injecting strong growth momentum. In Q1 2025, the outbound tourism business performed exceptionally well, with GTV recovering to 120% of the same period in 2019, significantly higher than the industry average. Flight booking volumes recovered to 95%, hotel accommodation booking volumes recovered to 80%, and vacation package booking volumes recovered to over 70%.
The firm noted that the company began deploying AI technology early, starting large model development in 2013 and launching the first tourism-focused large model product. In 2024, it released two content products: "Travel Hotspots" and "Reputation Rankings," both AI-driven and integrated with user search data and authentic reviews. Subsequently, it launched innovative applications including the large model "Ctrip Ask" and AI travel assistant "TripGenie." Q1 2025 data shows that through intelligent customer service and tour guide service monitoring applications, the company has already saved 20% in labor costs. AI-assisted content production tools have reduced merchant content creation time from 8.5 minutes to 15 seconds, with content qualification rates exceeding 98.9%.
The firm believes that AI technology enhances internal efficiency and cost reduction while improving external user experience, contributing to the dual enhancement of the company's user stickiness and profitability.