CICC has issued a research report stating that, considering CHINA EAST EDU's (00667) student enrollment has exceeded expectations, it has raised its 2026 revenue forecast by 3.6% to RMB 5.1 billion. The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to parent shareholders remains largely unchanged. The report also introduces a 2027 revenue forecast of RMB 5.5 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.1 billion. An Outperform rating and a target price of HK$9.5 are maintained, based on a 7.7x 2026e adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple. The company currently trades at 4.3x 2026e adjusted EV/EBITDA, implying a 59% upside potential. Key points from CICC are as follows:

Full-year 2025 adjusted net profit significantly exceeded market expectations. CHINA EAST EDU reported its 2025 full-year results: revenue reached RMB 4.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, surpassing market expectations. Adjusted net profit attributable to parent shareholders grew 50.9% year-on-year to RMB 792 million, also exceeding expectations, primarily driven by continuous optimization of the product mix and a steady increase in new student enrollments. The company declared a final dividend of HK$0.3 per share, representing a dividend yield of approximately 5%.

New student enrollments showed steady growth, with revenue expected to grow robustly. For the full year 2025, the group's number of new student enrollments increased by 5.5% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 2026, management indicated during the earnings conference that they expect the company's revenue to achieve over 10% year-on-year growth, with net profit growing by more than 20% year-on-year.

Operating leverage continues to improve, enhancing profitability. The group's overall gross profit margin for the full year 2025 was 55.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. Across all five major business segments, gross margins improved compared to the previous year, mainly due to a higher proportion of long-term programs with higher tuition fees and optimized cost control. The adjusted net profit margin attributable to parent shareholders reached 17.2%, an improvement of approximately 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily attributed to an optimized revenue structure, refined cost management, and a decrease in the sales expense ratio.

The product structure continues to be optimized. Within long-term programs, the 15-month high-skill specialized programs precisely meet the demand for employment skill training. Management stated during the earnings conference that they expect enrollments in these programs to increase by over 50% year-on-year in 2026. Furthermore, the company now operates three technician colleges, with the Chengdu New Oriental Technician College soon to be established, continuously upgrading the educational offerings. For short-term programs, the company has systematically upgraded its short-term training products, adjusted some interest-based classes shorter than three months, optimized comprehensive programs with weaker demand, and focused on developing high-quality short-term programs lasting 6-12 months. In 2025, enrollments in these high-quality short-term programs increased by over 12% year-on-year.

Risk warnings include intensified competition and student enrollments falling short of expectations.