A recent study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that nearly 90% of the economic burden from U.S. tariff increases in 2025 was shouldered by American businesses and consumers. Based on data analysis through November 2025, the research found that in the first eight months of the year, approximately 94% of the tariff costs were passed on to U.S. companies and consumers. By November, the proportion borne by foreign exporters saw a slight increase—a 10% tariff corresponded to only a 1.4% decrease in their export prices—yet the pass-through rate of the tariffs remained as high as 86%.

The authors of the report noted, "This result implies that a 10% tariff led to only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices." The study also highlighted that following April 2 of last year—a day referred to as "Liberation Day" by former President Trump, when he announced large-scale import tariff hikes—the average U.S. tariff rate surged from 2.6% to 13%. A significant spike occurred between April and May due to the imposition of high temporary tariffs on goods from China.

Although tariff exemptions and supply chain adjustments mitigated the actual tax burden, the economic costs continued to fall predominantly on the American public. Furthermore, the high costs associated with tariffs accelerated the shift of supply chains away from China to countries such as Mexico and Vietnam.

The researchers analyzed monthly trade data up to November 2025, employing statistical methods similar to those used in the 2018 and 2019 tariff studies. By comparing the 12-month changes in foreign export prices and tariff rates, while controlling for product-level variations and global price trends, they estimated the direct impact of tariffs on prices.