【1】Market Performance: Supported by intraday high volatility in oil prices, the BU main contract 2601 staged a V-shaped rebound to higher levels before losing momentum and slipping toward the close. The price fluctuated within a 1.34% range, ultimately settling at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous session and gaining 0.3% over the past seven days. The next-month contract 2602 rose 0.52%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term prices lower than deferred prices.

【2】Spot Market: ① The spot price of heavy-duty bitumen in Shandong remained flat at 3,030 yuan/ton, up 0.7% over seven days. The Shandong basis narrowed to -15 yuan/ton, increasing by 11 yuan/ton over the same period, indicating a seasonal slowdown in basis decline. ② In East China, the spot price stood at 3,270 yuan/ton, trading at a premium to futures. The East China basis was 225 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton over seven days.

【3】Crack Spread Changes: ① The BU-Brent spread widened to -314 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton over seven days. Due to weak bitumen fundamentals and sideways oil price movements, the crack spread diverged from oil price trends (see Chart 9). Currently, BU’s downward momentum has slowed, suggesting limited room for further crack spread declines. The BU main contract rose 0.4% intraday, while Brent gained 0.2% (based on the 3 PM closing price). ② The BU-SC spread fell the most (-29), followed by BU-LU (-6), while BU-FU rose (+11).

【4】Fundamental Changes: On the supply side, major refineries are expected to intermittently halt production, with output likely to shrink amid declining margins. Demand remains subdued as colder weather sets in, with weak activity in both northern and southern regions. Downstream demand is sluggish, with low willingness to accept high-priced cargoes, leading to cautious market sentiment. Inventories remain high year-on-year, with passive destructuring underway and supply pressure gradually building. Cost support has weakened, leaving bitumen relatively underperforming in the energy-chemical sector. Overall, bitumen fundamentals remain lackluster, with no significant catalysts. Winter stockpiling trends warrant attention.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentally, prices remain weak, constrained by softening demand and inventory pressure. Market participants await signs of winter stockpiling demand. Ahead of year-end, potential OPEC+ supply increases may weigh on oil prices, likely dragging bitumen lower. Technically, bitumen prices are consolidating near lows, with limited downside, suggesting continued weak volatility.

【6】Strategy: ① Consider profit-taking on short positions in the 2601 contract; ② Sell put options on the 2601 contract; ③ Take profits on short BU-Brent crack spreads on dips.