On October 16, 2025, domestic futures showed mixed performance among the main contracts. Multicrystalline silicon, coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber rose more than 3%, while Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, coke, and red dates increased over 2%. On the downside, the shipping index (European line) and live hogs fell over 3%, with apples dropping nearly 2%.

1. As October progresses, market news remains abundant, but relevant policy details are still unclear. According to Zheng Feifan, an analyst from CITIC Futures, the current multicrystalline silicon market has fully priced in the expectations regarding capacity control. He notes that an energy consumption-related consultation draft for multicrystalline silicon has been released, and subsequent measures for storage may gradually advance, keeping the market largely influenced by policy expectations. However, the implementation of related policies will take time. If capacity control policies can be introduced promptly and clear pathways for capacity clearance established, bullish sentiment in the market will likely increase further.

2. Analyst Liu Yixian from Hongze Research agrees, indicating that the production scheduling data for October shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for the multicrystalline silicon market. Following a reduction in the production of silicon wafers this month, market speculation has cooled, leading to a continuous accumulation of upstream silicon material inventory. In this context, Liu suggests that the core contradiction in the fourth quarter market will be weak demand, putting pressure on cash profit, and with significant supply pressure, there will be no fundamental change in the oversupply situation, making it difficult for the upward trend to sustain.

3. Analyst Li Xiangying from Guosen Futures concurs that, under weak fundamentals, the multicrystalline silicon market still faces accumulation pressure in the later stages. Continued attention should be paid to the timing and intensity of capacity control policy implementation. If the industry operating rate can decline, current multicrystalline silicon prices will receive strong support; however, if supply pressures continue to increase, high inventory could put pressure on the futures market. Until the policy details are clarified, it is expected that multicrystalline silicon prices will oscillate within a range, and investors should maintain rational positions. (Futures Daily) (Note: This content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)