【1】Market Performance: The BU 2602 contract fluctuated within a low range during the day, closing at 2,943, down 0.41%. The intraday high was 2,963, and the low was 2,928, marking a cumulative decline of 1.7% over the past seven days, indicating a consolidation phase. The next-month contract, 2601, fell 0.24%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term prices lower than deferred prices.

【2】Spot Market: ① The market price of heavy-duty bitumen in Shandong was 2,930 yuan/ton, nearly flat with futures prices and unchanged from the previous period, down 2.0% over seven days. The Shandong basis was -13 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton over seven days. ② The market price in East China was 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The East China basis stood at +207 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton over seven days.

【3】Crack Spread Changes: ① The BU-Brent spread recorded -295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton over seven days. The BU main contract fell 0.4%, while Brent dropped 0.1% (based on closing prices at 3 PM). Bitumen has recently underperformed in the energy and chemical sector, with weak oil price support and sluggish spot markets keeping prices low and widening the crack spread. Given current oil price uncertainties, hedging bitumen against oil prices remains challenging, warranting a cautious stance on crack spreads.

【4】Fundamental Changes: Bitumen is currently in its winter off-season, with subdued fundamentals. On the supply side, domestic refinery output reached 502,000 tons as of December 5, up 2% week-on-week. The diluted bitumen discount stood at -13.1 USD/barrel on December 5, reflecting persistently high discounts and indicating ample supply. Demand-wise, winter typically sees weak bitumen demand, with road construction activity stabilizing at 29% last week, a six-week low, as terminal demand remained sluggish in both northern and southern regions. Inventory data showed a draw in social stocks but a build in refinery stocks. Recent market rumors suggest some Xinjiang refineries have released winter storage contracts, with traders showing increased interest at current prices. However, spot prices falling below 3,000 yuan/ton and continued declines have fueled bearish sentiment or wait-and-see attitudes toward winter storage pricing. Market participants should monitor geopolitical risks, such as Russia-Ukraine energy facility attacks and Venezuela-related uncertainties, for potential oil price volatility.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentally, prices remain weak, constrained by softening demand and inventory pressures. The market will watch for any improvement in winter storage activity. Ahead of year-end, potential OPEC+ production increases may pressure oil prices, likely dragging bitumen prices lower. Technically, bitumen prices continue to consolidate near lows, with expectations of further sideways movement. The previously referenced closing price range of [3,010–3,100] has been breached, requiring patience for stabilization signals.

【6】Strategy: Weak consolidation expected for unilateral movements.