Morgan Stanley has released a research report indicating that while COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results this year, this may be attributed to delayed cost recognition due to rising marine fuel oil prices in March. Net profit for the period was RMB 5.9 billion, while recurring profit stood at RMB 5.86 billion, a decline of 49.7% year-on-year. The firm has assigned an "Underweight" rating to the stock with a target price of HK$10.3. The report estimates that freight rate increases implemented in April should largely offset cost inflation, although the spot market has recently faced some pressure and marine fuel costs have normalized. Benefiting from a low base in the second quarter of 2025, the year-on-year decline in net profit for the second quarter of this year is expected to narrow significantly compared to the first quarter. However, the firm believes that high growth in global container shipping capacity supply in the second half of 2026 will sustain cyclical pressures.