Abstract

SAP SE will report its first-quarter results on April 23, 2026 Post Market. The preview synthesizes market forecasts and company guidance on revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, and consolidates recent institutional commentaries to frame likely swing factors around cloud growth, mix, and operating discipline.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-indicated figures imply first-quarter revenue of 9.60 billion US dollars, EBIT estimated at 2.72 billion US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 1.66, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.81%, 23.66%, and 26.07%, respectively; margin commentary points to gross margin expansion supported by cloud scale and a net profit margin trajectory consistent with efficiency measures, though explicit gross and net margin forecasts are not provided. The core business remains driven by cloud and software, with a continuing shift from licenses to subscription models that should support recurring revenue and profitability trends. The most promising segment is cloud and software, which contributed 8.62 billion US dollars last quarter, with stable double-digit momentum anticipated given backlog and migration pipelines.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, SAP SE delivered revenue of 9.68 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 74.09%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.68 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 17.35%, and adjusted EPS of 1.62, with year-over-year growth across revenue and EPS of 3.27% and 16.55%, respectively. A notable highlight was disciplined operating execution that supported EPS outperformance relative to market estimates despite a slight revenue miss. Main business performance was led by cloud and software at 8.62 billion US dollars, while services revenue was 1.07 billion US dollars; cloud and software remains the primary growth engine, supported by robust renewals and migration wins.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Cloud and Software

Cloud and software constitute the majority of SAP SE’s revenue base and profit engine. The quarter’s setup suggests continued expansion in recurring revenue from cloud subscriptions and support, while on-premise license drag should moderate as more customers transition under multi‑year S/4HANA and RISE programs. Operating leverage is expected as the company scales its hyperscaler partnerships and optimizes delivery, helping gross margin stay resilient relative to prior-year levels. Watch for net new cloud bookings and backlog conversion as the clearest indicators for revenue durability and near-term pricing power.

Most promising business: Cloud subscriptions under RISE with SAP and S/4HANA

The company’s RISE with SAP and S/4HANA migration pipeline continues to be the primary vector for growth given the breadth of modernization cycles and cross‑sell opportunities into analytics and business technology platform services. This segment benefits from high retention and multi‑solution attach rates, which collectively raise average revenue per customer while improving revenue visibility. As more large enterprises consolidate workloads on SAP’s cloud architecture, the mix should favor higher-margin subscription revenue, reinforcing EBIT and EPS growth trajectories. Key catalysts include large deal signings, backlog execution, and early signals of AI‑enabled workflow adoption embedded in the applications suite.

Stock price swing factors this quarter

Share performance this quarter will likely hinge on the magnitude of cloud revenue growth relative to expectations, as even small variances in net new ACV or backlog conversion can meaningfully affect operating leverage and EPS. Another swing factor is the trajectory of services revenue and its margin mix; slower service growth combined with efficient delivery can support consolidated margin expansion, whereas heavy implementation activity could pressure gross margin temporarily. Finally, commentary on full‑year outlook—particularly any reiteration or tightening of revenue and operating profit ranges—may drive sentiment, with investors scrutinizing implied second‑half weighting and the cadence of RISE migrations.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the majority view is constructive, highlighting accelerating EBIT growth as subscription mix improves and operational efficiency supports margin expansion; positive opinions outweigh cautious ones by a clear margin. Analysts point to the combination of mid‑single‑digit revenue expansion and double‑digit EBIT and EPS growth as indicative of healthy operating leverage, with cloud momentum and backlog depth underpinning confidence. Several well‑followed research houses emphasize that sustained bookings strength and disciplined expense management position the company to meet or exceed guidance, while risk discussions focus on deal timing and macro‑sensitive customer budgets. The bullish camp underscores that a 5.81% revenue increase paired with a 23.66% EBIT uplift and a 26.07% EPS rise would validate the margin thesis and support further estimate revisions if cloud conversion rates stay robust.