The market remains largely unchanged. From certain perspectives, it doesn’t appear weak—in fact, bullish sentiment is strong. Whether it’s leading tech stocks like CPO, newly listed firms such as Moore, or major indices, dips are often followed by recoveries. However, outside these sectors, performance is left to chance.

This dynamic has contributed to a seesawing index while some investors see their accounts steadily shrink. As year-end approaches, this somewhat "dull" scenario often emerges, leaving traders in limbo. For seasoned players, this isn’t the time for impatience. Historically, major market, sector, or stock rallies unfold over just a few critical days or weeks. The rest of the time is spent in volatility, testing patience and conviction.

Today’s market saw notable developments. First, China Vanke (万科A) surged by the daily limit in afternoon trading, with buy orders peaking at 2.74 billion yuan. Multiple domestic bonds tied to Vanke also rallied over 30%. The property sector followed suit, with stocks like Caixin Development (财信发展) and China Fortune Land (华夏幸福) hitting limit-ups, while others like Gemdale (金地集团), Poly Development (保利发展), and Greenland Holdings (绿地控股) rose. Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks also gained.

The catalyst was a bondholder meeting for Vanke’s "22 Vanke MTN004" notes, where a debt extension plan backed by state-owned guarantees was unveiled. The 2 billion yuan medium-term notes, originally due Dec. 15, now feature full连带责任担保 from Shenzhen Metro Group—a decisive confidence booster.

Real estate’s struggles are well-documented. Often lumped with "traditional economy" sectors like liquor, its unique role remains undeniable. Vanke, once the industry’s gold standard in scale, governance, and credit, now faces market hopes for policy support to avert default contagion. Potential measures, like mortgage subsidies, make real estate a prime candidate for policy-driven turnarounds—unlike liquor, where impactful policies are scarce.

Next, solar’s "anti-overcapacity" push. Once a market darling, the sector has stumbled this year, with 44 solar equipment stocks down over 20% from peaks. Long-awaited consolidation plans faced skepticism due to vague progress. Yesterday, news broke that Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Tech—a 3 billion yuan polysilicon acquisition platform backed by China’s光伏行业协会—was established. While a step forward, market reaction stayed muted as focus shifts to execution amid severe oversupply. Polysilicon’s average cash cost sits at 35,000 yuan/ton, yet utilization hovers near 40%, leaving 60% idle.

Macro signals also drew attention. Consumer retail rose on November’s CPI, which climbed 0.7% YoY (a 20-month high), driven by rebounding food prices (e.g., vegetables +14.5% after nine months of declines). PPI fell 2.2% YoY but rose 0.1% MoM for a second month. Beyond tech, traditional sectors await clearer recovery signals or stimulus.

All eyes now turn to the Fed’s rate decision early Thursday. CME’s FedWatch shows an 87.6% chance of a 25bps cut, with markets already eyeing leadership changes. Kevin Hassett, a top contender for Fed chair, hinted at "ample room" for rate cuts—a welcome shift from parsing Powell’s every word.

For investors, the waiting game continues.