According to TrendForce data, China's high-end AI chip market is projected to grow by over 60% by 2026. On one hand, domestic AI chips continue to advance toward self-sufficiency, with promising chip designers potentially capturing up to 50% of the market share. On the other hand, NVIDIA's H200, which offers significantly improved performance over the H20, has attracted interest from end customers. If sales proceed smoothly, Chinese CSPs/OEMs are expected to actively procure the H200 or similar overseas products, which could maintain around 30% of the market share if allowed into China.

Recent reports indicate that NVIDIA has informed Chinese clients of plans to deliver its second-tier AI chip, the H200, by mid-February next year, ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Sources suggest NVIDIA will utilize existing inventory to fulfill initial orders, with shipments estimated at 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to 40,000–80,000 H200 chips.

The H200, NVIDIA's second-most advanced chip after the Blackwell series, was previously banned for export to China under the Biden administration. However, on December 8, the Trump administration permitted NVIDIA to export the H200 to "approved customers," excluding more advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, stating that access to China is critical for U.S. competitiveness in AI.

Guosen Securities believes that both domestic AI chip development and eased overseas restrictions will benefit China's computing infrastructure. Related industry players, including Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SH), LENOVO GROUP (00992), and others, are expected to gain significantly. The firm recommends continued focus on key companies in the sector.